2025-26 College Football Playoff quarterfinal, bowl game predictions, picks, odds

There is no juggernaut. There is no team still standing that will be talked about in the decades to come.

In the absence of one, Ohio State was often treated like one, sporting a historically efficient defense, last season’s national championship rings and the No. 1 ranking for nearly the entire season. But the potentially fatal flaw has been visible since the season opener, when the Buckeyes squeaked by Texas with 14 points. It emerged again in the Big Ten title game, when Ohio State scored 10 points in the loss to Indiana.

The defending champs enter the playoff as the No. 2 seed, but with the 28th-ranked offense, having been limited to less than 20 points per game against the four toughest defenses (Texas, Washington, Michigan, Indiana) it faced, led by a first-year starter (Julian Sayin) who has struggled under pressure, and was sacked five times against the Hoosiers.

Miami’s front is built to create similar havoc — featuring All-American Rueben Bain Jr. and senior Akheem Mesidor — part of a top 10 defense that forces nearly two turnovers per game, shuts down the run and excels in the red zone. The Hurricanes (+9.5) may also struggle to score, but their College Football Playoff first-round upset at Texas A&M will be far more beneficial than the Buckeyes’ 25 days off heading into Wednesday night’s quarterfinal.

Ohio State — still the betting favorite to win the national title — has fallen short of that goal the past three times it spent the majority of the season atop the polls (1998, 2006, 2015). The Buckeyes’ three most recent national championships (2002, 2014, 2024) were all unexpected, including last season’s run as an 8-seed.

Orange Bowl: Texas Tech (+2.5) over Oregon

Texas Tech has exceeded its NIL-fueled hype, winning its first Big 12 title, while going undefeated with Behren Morton under center, as well as 12-0 against the spread with its starting quarterback healthy.

Though Dan Lanning has made the Ducks annual contenders, he has also lost the team’s biggest games every season, most often as the favorite.

Texas Tech’s top-ranked run defense will force Dante Moore to shoulder too much responsibility, having thrown for an average of 149 yards, with one touchdown and three interceptions in his two previous matchups against top 10 defenses (Indiana, Iowa), when the Ducks averaged 19 points.

Rose Bowl: Alabama (+7.5) over Indiana

It was no coincidence that each team that received a bye last year came out flat. The Hoosiers will not be immune to the effects of being off for nearly four weeks, of spending the past month as the top-ranked team in the nation, and no longer able to play the card that no one believes in them.

For once, Alabama carries that chip, in the unthinkable scenario of the most dominant program in the sport’s history playing the role of the underdog against the FBS team with the most all-time losses. The pressure is on the Hoosiers — who have won three games by five points or less — and Heisman winner Fernando Mendoza, whose stock has been inflated by a generationally poor quarterback class.

The Tide won’t lack confidence, coming off an incredible comeback at Oklahoma, and entering with more talent and depth than the nation’s top-ranked team.

Sugar Bowl: Georgia (-6.5) over Ole Miss

The Rebels wouldn’t have signed up for this rematch after surrendering the game’s final 17 points — of a season-worst 43 allowed — against the Bulldogs on Oct. 18, when Georgia controlled possession and Gunnar Stockton had his best performance of the season.

Kirby Smart’s core won’t face-plant in back-to-back playoffs, with his defense peaking — allowing an average of 7.3 points in the past four games — and Lane Kiffin’s absence certain to be felt.

ReliaQuest Bowl: Iowa (+5.5) over Vanderbilt

The Hawkeyes always have hope, suffering their four losses — all against ranked teams — by an average of less than four points. It doesn’t feel good to bet against Diego Pavia, but Iowa’s top 10 defensive ranking is well-earned, having held a pair of top 10 offenses (Indiana, Oregon) to nearly 20 points below their season averages.

Sun Bowl: Duke (-3.5) over Arizona State

The Sun Devils haven’t been the same without starting quarterback Sam Leavitt. Now, Kenny Dillingham will be without his top receiver, running back and pass rusher, as well as both starting tackles.

That is enough to tilt the field in favor of one of the ACC champs, whose opportunistic defense should give extra possessions to Darian Mensah, the nation’s fourth-leading passer.

Citrus Bowl: Michigan (+6.5) over Texas

It’s hard to know which team will show up when so many key players from each side won’t show up. Though Arch Manning will suit up — who knows for how long? — the Longhorns defense and backfield has been decimated, making the Wolverines a live dog after their upset of Alabama in the same bowl last year. New coach Kyle Whittingham will be watching. Will Sherrone Moore?

Las Vegas Bowl: Utah (-14.5) over Nebraska

The Cornhuskers will have plenty of issues putting up points without their star quarterback (Dylan Raiola) and running back (Emmett Johnson), but the defense is a bigger problem, most recently surrendering 40 points to Iowa’s 121st-ranked offense.

Utah’s longtime defensive coordinator turned head coach, Morgan Scalley, knows the path to success comes from pounding the rock. Anything under 200 yards would be a shock.

Armed Forces Bowl: Rice (+14.5) over Texas State

A game that highlights the absurdity of the bloated bowl season features an Owls (5-7) team that has no business being rewarded. But Rice — which was only invited after multiple schools declined — should demonstrate urgency, looking for its first bowl win since 2014 under first-year coach Scott Abell. The Bobcats are 0-2 against the spread this season as favorites of two touchdowns or more.

Liberty Bowl: Navy (-7.5) over Cincinnati

Since 2013, the service academies are 19-3 against the spread in bowl games, being largely shielded from opt-outs and the transfer portal.

Cincy isn’t so lucky, entering this game without standout quarterback Brendan Sorsby — who will soon collect seven figures elsewhere — and at least five other starters. Even at full strength, the Bearcats would’ve struggled to stop Navy’s top-ranked ground game, owning the nation’s 104th-ranked run defense.

Holiday Bowl: Arizona (-2.5) over SMU

The Wildcats will want it more, bouncing back from a 4-8 campaign to potentially finish this season with six straight wins, while the Mustangs — who are 0-3 in the postseason under Rhett Lashlee — may struggle to find motivation, most recently blowing their chance to make the playoff for the second straight year. Arizona hasn’t allowed more than 200 yards passing since September.

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Duke’s Mayo Bowl: Mississippi State (-3.5) over Wake Forest

The Bulldogs endured a grueling SEC gauntlet, and are far better than their record (5-7) suggests, having also gone 3-0 against the spread as a favorite. True freshman quarterback Kamario Taylor ran for 173 yards and two touchdowns in his first career start against Ole Miss, while the Demon Deacons’ inconsistent offense will be without leading-rusher Demond Claiborne.

Best bets: Georgia, Navy

This season: 116-131-1 (18-31) (entering Tuesday)

2014-24 record: 1,392-1,309-31