“Thursday Night Football” tends to favor the ugly.
It’s a quick turnaround and often times plenty of players nurse injuries — like Travis Kelce currently — as there remains plenty of unknown until the waning hours of game time.
Kelce looks as if like he’s good to go and the Kansas City Chiefs enter Thursday night as 10.5-point favorites over their AFC West foe Denver Broncos.
It has been an ugly first season for head coach Sean Payton at the helm, as Denver is off to a 1-4 start that includes the Miami Dolphins hanging 70 points on them in Week 3.
But I actually like the Broncos to keep this one close against the Chiefs.
Chiefs-Broncos player props and picks
(8:15 p.m. ET., Amazon Prime)
A spread this large is too hard to pass up, especially with the public all over Patrick Mahomes and KC.
But if the Chiefs’ win against the Jets shows anything, it’s that Mahomes is a magician in winding down the clock and looks for an efficient way to end the game without giving the ball back to the opposition.
That’s why the Chiefs sometimes struggle to cover large spreads.
Enough with the spread talk, though.
I’ve got a player prop to bet for Thursday as well, and it’s a perfect buy-low opportunity on a receiver who has struggled over the last couple of weeks.
Let’s take a look at Courtland Sutton and his over 3.5 receptions prop (-113, FanDuel Sportsbook).
Sutton was held catchless for nearly the entire game last week — he picked one up late in the fourth quarter — and had just three against Chicago the week prior.
Stream the game live on Thursday night on Amazon Prime Video
But he had cleared this 3.5 number in each of the opening three weeks.
Since last year in games started by Russell Wilson, Sutton has eclipsed 3.5 receptions in 13 of 19 games (68 percent).
And one of those games includes a second-quarter departure for Sutton due to injury.
This is the perfect game script for Sutton to make an impact.
The Broncos are large underdogs to the Chiefs and will likely be forced into a negative game script.
That means more routes for Sutton, who runs on 93 percent of drop-backs and is tied with Jerry Jeudy in targets (19).
No other Denver receiver has more than eight.
Sutton is targeted on nearly a quarter of routes run and despite the possible weather concerns — large winds — we should see plenty of drop-backs out of Wilson.
Betting on the NFL?
While the Chiefs defense ranks 10th in DVOA against the pass, their ability to build a large lead has resulted in plenty of receivers hauling in 4+ receptions.
That list includes Christian Kirk (11), Garrett Wilson (9), Amon-Ra St. Brown (6), Jordan Addison (6), K.J. Osborn (5) and even Brandon Powell (4), among others.
The Chiefs have rarely run into trouble moving the ball on the offensive side, which has led to such heavy pass-game scripts from the opposition.
And for what it’s worth, since 2022, in Denver’s losses when Sutton did not leave early due to injury, he’s hauled in 4+ receptions in 11 of 14 (78.6 percent).
At close to a pick ’em odds-wise, this prop presents a lot of value.
Look for Sutton to bounce back against the Chiefs as Wilson relies on his No. 1 receiver in this AFC West bout.
It may not be a win, in fact it may be an ugly loss for the Broncos once again, but that just means more passing downs for Sutton to take advantage of.
The Pick: Courtland Sutton over 3.5 receptions (-113, FanDuel Sportsbook)
Credit: Source link
