The Big Ten East is a three-horse race.
One of Penn State, Ohio State or Michigan will be in the Big Ten Championship game.
Considering the East Division winner will likely play Iowa or Wisconsin in the Big Ten Championship, one of that trio likely wins the Big Ten and makes the College Football Playoff.
Therefore, games between these three are crucial and they’re arguably the most important college football games this year.
The first of the three matchups happens this Saturday when the undefeated, sixth-ranked Nittany Lions travel to The Shoe to battle the undefeated, third-ranked Buckeyes.
Everything is on the line for James Franklin, Ryan Day, Drew Allar and Kyle McCord.
As a betting man, I don’t recommend putting everything on the line for any single wager.
But I highly recommend throwing a few shillings on Penn State to cover the spread.
I think the Lions can win outright.
Penn State vs Ohio State Prediction
Ohio State needs to air it out.
The Buckeyes can’t run the ball, ranking 96th nationally in Rush Expected Points Added (EPA) per Play and averaging only 4.3 yards per carry.
Even worse, running backs TreVeyon Henerson, Milan Williams and Deamonte Trayanum are all banged up and listed as “hopeful” to play in this one.
Unfortunately for OSU, the Nittany Lions boast the nation’s best pass defense.
Defensive coordinator Manny Diaz runs a 4-3 scheme predicated on attacking the quarterback while playing Cover-1 on the backside.
In the front seven, Penn State is aggressive, blitzing 56 percent of the time and producing the nation’s second-highest sack rate (14 percent).
Chop Robinson leads the way with 14 quarterback hurries, but Five Nittany Lions have double-digit pressures this year.
Diaz can send so much pressure because he has the nation’s best secondary. Kalen King, Johnny Dixon and Cam Miller spearhead a secondary that’s tops nationally in on-target ball rate allowed.
Penn State can trust those guys one-on-one.
The Nittany Lions rank first nationally in EPA per Pass and Pass Success Rate allowed.
Meanwhile, I’m not a believer in Ohio State quarterback Kyle McCord.
He ranks 40th nationally among qualified FBS quarterbacks in Pro Football Focus’s (PFF) Passing grades.
He has 11 touchdowns to only one interception, but he’s due for regression given he has 10 big-time throws to seven turnover-worthy ones.
Betting on College Football?
Ohio State’s offense hasn’t been itself with McCord.
The Buckeyes scored 23 points against Indiana, had a four percent post-game win expectancy against Notre Dame and led Maryland by less than a touchdown in the fourth quarter.
And this is a brutal matchup for McCord.
He’s vulnerable with guys in his face, having completed only 15 of 42 pass attempts in pressure pockets, and has been below-average against Cover-1 defenses, averaging only 6.6 yards per pass.
Manny Diaz will lock down the Ohio State receivers, get after McCord, and force him into overdue mistakes, hopefully costly interceptions.
I think the Buckeyes really struggle to move the ball Saturday, especially if wide receiver Emeka Egbuka is out — he’s currently listed as “questionable” in the injury report — which would open up resources for Penn State to cover the nearly uncoverable Marvin Harrison Jr.
Conversely, this is gut-check time for Penn State quarterback Drew Allar.
He’s been passive so far, attempting only 11 passes more than 20 yards this season.
Allar’s been efficient, ranking 11th in PFF’s Passing grades with only one turnover-worthy throw. But, eventually, he’ll have to start taking shots downfield.
I think Allar could hit some deep shots Saturday. Ohio State allowed 11.6 yards per play in Passing Downs to Notre Dame, nearly double the national average.
Penn State is an efficient offense with two great running backs – Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen – and an offensive line that’s top nationally in Stuff Rate allowed.
Between those units, the Nittany Lions are 21st nationally in Rush Success Rate.
But, even if Penn State gets behind the sticks, I’m betting Allar will step up and make the throws needed against a potentially bendy Buckeyes’ secondary. He’s too talented.
Ohio State’s defense under new defensive coordinator Jim Knowles is much improved. Penn State won’t waltz down the field.
So, I expect this will be a low-scoring game. Unfortunately, the Under has come down too much for me to bet now.
Still, Penn State has more avenues to offense.
Ohio State won’t get anything on the ground, and I’m betting McCord makes huge mistakes behind the sticks while under pressure and staring down a ball-hawking secondary.
Our Action Network projections make Penn State just a three-point ‘dog in this game, giving us 1.5 points of value over the market.
But, considering the on-the-field matchup, I wouldn’t be surprised if Penn State wins outright.
Take the points either way.
Penn State vs Ohio State pick
Penn State +4.5 | Play to +4
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