Penn State vs. Indiana prediction: Take underdog Hoosiers

Some bad beats will live with you forever, and who had Navy as a 10.5-point underdog against Air Force will never forget how the Midshipmen inexplicably blew the backdoor cover last Saturday.

After staying within the number all game, the Midshipmen threw a pick-six to go down 17-0 with under four minutes on the clock. It looked bleak for underdog backers, who now needed Navy to go 78 yards down the field for its first score of the game.

Somehow, the Midshipmen did just that and got in the end zone with 55 seconds to go. A backdoor cover seemed imminent.

But then Navy head coach Brian Newberry did something that will haunt Navy backers for a long time.

He sent the offense back on the field to go for two, which made very little sense with the Midshipmen down 17-6 and under a minute on the clock.

Inevitably, the conversion attempt failed and the euphoric feeling of a backdoor cover quickly turned into despair.

Oh well.

Now that we’ve got that out of our system, we turn the page to this week’s Ugly Underdog. And boy, this one ain’t pretty.

It’s been a real tough season for the Indiana Hoosiers.

Not only are they 2-5 with their only wins coming against Akron (in overtime!) and Indiana State, but IU fans also have to cope with the fact that their former quarterback, Michael Penix Jr., is one of the favorites to win the Heisman Trophy for the Washington Huskies this December.

And things will likely get much worse before they get better for Indiana as it travels to Penn State as a 32.5-point underdog on Saturday afternoon.

As the odds tell us, this game will likely be a rout.

But there are reasons to believe that the Hoosiers can stay within this massive spread.

Off the top, this is a pretty tough spot for Penn State.

The Nittany Lions had a massive opportunity to put themselves on the inside track for the College Football Playoff with a win over Ohio State last weekend but came up short in Columbus.

Penn State isn’t necessarily eliminated from the CFP picture, but a lot of things will have to break its way for the Nittany Lions to get into the dance.

A flat performance after a loss like that is not out of the question.

On the field, there’s also a pretty clear path to a cover for Indiana.

Betting on College Football?

The Hoosiers are quite poor offensively — they rank 128th (out of 133 FBS teams) in yards per play — but they may not need to score all that much to get us to the window.

Penn State’s strength is an elite defense, but the offense does leave quite a bit to be desired.

The Nittany Lions rank 92nd overall in yards per play and their lack of explosiveness — they are one of the least explosive offenses in the country — can make it hard to get the quick scores needed to run up a score.

Furthermore, Indiana’s one true strength is its ability to limit explosive plays.

Penn State may not give up anything in this contest, but it is hard to trust the Nittany Lions’ offense to score enough points to cover this big spread.

The play: Indiana +32.5.