The San Francisco 49ers have an opportunity to pull away from their NFC West Seattle Seahawks on Thanksgiving night, the nightcap of the three-game holiday slate.
They enter as a touchdown favorite and a game ahead of the Seahawks, who dropped a divisional bout with the Los Angeles Rams last week.
Question marks surround the Seahawks entering Thursday with injuries to both starting quarterback Geno Smith and running back Kenneth Walker.
Smith, who returned to practice in limited fashion, is listed as questionable but coach Pete Carroll is confident his quarterback will play.
Walker is listed as doubtful but he didn’t practice during the week and more than likely won’t play.
I like the 49ers to roll against Seattle despite being on the road on Thursday. Here are some Thanksgiving NFL trends that agree:
- Since 2004, road favorites are 24-1 straight up and 19-6 against the spread on Thanksgiving.
- In the last 20 years, favorites of seven or more points on the road are 8-1 ATS.
- At night, favorites are 12-4 ATS since 2005.
For the sake of this article, however, I’m going to focus on a 49ers player prop.
And no, it’s not Christian McCaffrey or the red-hot George Kittle and Brandon Aiyuk. Rather, I’m looking at Deebo Samuel.
His rushing + receiving yards prop currently sits at 61.5, a number that I think has become undervalued in the market because of his lack of production of late.
Samuel is a gadget receiver that has a great matchup against Seattle. While he often struggles against man coverage, the Seahawks run zone at an 85.5% rate, second-most in the NFL.
That’s a huge plus for Samuel, who has a run rate of 0.85 yards per route against man coverage. Against zone? That number jumps to 2.73.
This is a great buy-low spot on Samuel. He has just four or more receptions in one of his last five games. In his first three, he hauled in at least five each time.
While the Seattle defense has found a gem in Devon Witherspoon, it has lacked a real second cornerback.
The Seahawks are 25th in DVOA against the pass – 15th against No. 1 receivers. But that number drops all the way to 30th against No. 2 wideouts.
Aiyuk has settled into his role as the X receiver and will command plenty of attention, while Samuel can operate underneath and beat the zone.
Samuel’s ceiling is sky high due to his average depth of target halves against zone and his explosiveness after catches.
Betting on the NFL?
He suffered a shoulder injury after just nine snaps against the Browns in Week 6. After missing the following three weeks, he returned and played just 56% of snaps. He finished with 59 rushing + receiving yards.
The following week against the Bucs, he finished with 62 combined. But the important thing to note is his 85% snap share.
Samuel is back at full health and now has a great matchup with the Seahawks on Thursday night. Look for the 49ers to rely on him to pick apart this Seattle zone while also picking up a handful of carries in the process.
We’re about to see the early season version of Sameul back on the field soon enough. Buy low on his rushing + receiving over prop while you have the time.
Pick: Deebo Samuel over 61.5 rushing + receiving yards
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