South Alabama vs. Mercer prediction: College basketball odds, pick

Last year, South Alabama had a McCreary stopper in 7-foot big man Kevin Samuel, who was an excellent rim protector and dominant interior presence. 

But Samuel graduated, and the Jaguars are uber-small without him. Nobody stands over 6-foot-10, they rank 303rd nationally in average height and starting center Thomas Howell is a 6-foot-8 walking question mark on defense – he’s allowed 13 points on eight post-up sets defended.

The Jags are getting cooked on the interior, ranking 308th nationally in 2-point defense (55.6 percent) and 315th in post-up PPP allowed (1.03), while allowing 33 paint points per game (37th percentile). 

Coach Richie Riley knew he would have to play a small-ball lineup in the post-Samuel world and had to adjust his defensive strategy. 

So, he dusted off his old matchup zone defense, trying to compensate for his small defenders by zoning opposing big men. The Jags played zone almost the entire game against Maryland (57 zone possessions, four man-to-man) and most of the Jacksonville State game (37 zone, 31 man-to-man). 

Theoretically, going zone would be a great matchup against McCreary, as the Jags can hound him on the interior – running zone is like naturally double- or triple-teaming opposing interior presences.

However, McCreary and the Bears were monsters against zone looks last season. McCreary scored 1.14 PPP against zone, which ranked in the 77th percentile of D-I players, and the team scored 1.06 PPP, which ranked in the 84th percentile of D-I teams. 

So, this matchup is brutal for USA’s defense. The Jags are too small to stop McCreary one-on-one, and the big man is immune to zone looks.

Even worse, the Jaguars have struggled to defend off-screen sets, which Mercer has used extensively to pop open Robby Carmody (shooting 42 percent from 3) and Jake Davis (44 percent). 

Mercer might have its best offensive performance of the season here. The Bears should score at will on the interior and perimeter.

However, the Bears early-season struggles have been primarily because of their defense. Mercer ranks 331st nationally in eFG% allowed, 359th in free-throw rate allowed and 317th in defensive rating. 

However, a lot of that is tough luck.

Opponents are scoring 1.03 PPP on guarded jump shots and a whopping 1.42 PPP on unguarded jump shots, even as Mercer has been good at limiting the latter and forcing the former. 

That’s simply unsustainable.

For example, ShotQuality projects Mercer’s opponents should be shooting 32 percent from 3 instead of 38 percent based on the “quality” of attempts. 

Another example: Mercer opponents have shot 57 percent on corner 3s, and there’s simply no way that continues.  

You’ll see Mercer’s defensive metrics improve as opponents hit fewer jumpers, and Wednesday is a good spot for some of that positive defensive regression to hit.

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South Alabama isn’t generating many open jumpers – only about eight per game, which ranks 207th nationally – and is shooting only 32 percent from 3. 

A big part of that is the absence of senior swingman Judah Brown, who has missed the past five games after suffering a brutal lower leg injury against Nicholls State. He was one of only two returning starters from last year’s squad, and he’s the team’s best perimeter shooter (41 percent from 3 last season). 

I haven’t seen any updates on Brown, but I assume he’s still unavailable for this one. 

If Mercer finally sees some missed opponent 3s, the Bears could finally win a game. A Brown-less South Alabama squad seems poised to miss some jumpers. 

And more generally, I don’t love this offensive matchup for the Jags. 

Mercer plays aggressive defense, pressing and forcing plenty of turnovers, as the Bears rank in the top 20 nationally in defensive turnover rate. 

(As an aside: That partially explains their defensive struggles – if your defense gambles for steals but your opponent makes every shot, you’re cooked.)

While South Alabama freshman point guard Marcus “Smurf” Millender has been excellent leading the offense (33 percent assist rate, top 50 among D-I players), he’s been mistake-prone in his rookie year with a lackluster 19 percent turnover rate. 

Specifically, Smurf has struggled against press defenses, and the Jags have struggled with him. They rank 311th nationally in PPP against the press (0.68). 

South Alabama might turn the ball over a bunch Wednesday morning. 

Moreover, while the Jaguars have been unable to generate solid looks from the 3-point line, they’ve settled far too much for midrange looks, ranking in the top 50 nationally in mid-range shot frequency.

Meanwhile, Mercer ranks in the top 30 nationally in mid-range PPP allowed, with opponents shooting only 38 percent from that area. 

While the Bears have struggled mightily this season, I think this is an excellent two-way matchup, especially if their tough luck flips.

Also, this is Mercer’s first home game since opening night, so I could see the team coming out energized after suffering through a long road trip.

Meanwhile, South Alabama is about to play its third straight road contest, and the Jags are probably looking forward to going home. 

Projection systems like the Bears in this spot, with EvanMiya projecting them as a four-point home favorite over South Alabama, BartTorvik projecting them as a three-point favorite, and The Action Network’s PRO Model projecting them as a 2.5-point favorite. 

We’re getting Mercer cheap on Wednesday morning in Macon. 

South Alabama vs. Mercer pick

Mercer -1.5 (-110) at BetMGM | Play to -2.5 (-110)