The Yankees, Mets or another big-market team likely will land Yoshinobu Yamamoto for a fortune that might rival Gerrit Cole for the largest contract ever awarded a pitcher.
Yamamoto, the winner of three straight Sawamura Awards — Japan’s version of the Cy Young — will be paid like few, if any, pitchers have been paid, but not solely because of his stuff. Sure, the righty projects as an ace, but his most unique characteristic as a top-flight starter on the open market is his age.
Major League Baseball players don’t become free agents until they have reached six years of service time. Cole became a free agent at age 29, when he signed with the Yankees. Jordan Montgomery, perhaps the second-best pitcher on the open market, will turn 31 next week. Blake Snell is 31, too. Marcus Stroman will celebrate his 33rd birthday in May.
Maybe they age with grace, but teams bidding on their services likely believe their best days are behind them. Every arm comes with mileage, which leads to tread, which leads to breakdowns.
But Yamamoto’s arm, teams can theorize, is not just electric but also fresh. He has come over to the majors at 25, which is old enough to no longer be considered an international amateur but young enough to hit the market sooner than just about anyone (especially of his caliber). Yamamoto is eight years younger than Kyle Higashioka, who has yet to hit free agency; he is younger than Luis Gil, who is several years away from even being eligible for arbitration.
There is an argument to be made that Yamamoto, who has won the past three Pacific League MVPs, is only just about to enter his prime. Over the past 10 seasons, the most-used pitchers in Major League Baseball — which equates to the pitchers deemed the most useful, essentially, by the industry — have been aged 25 to 28.
Thanks to Katie Sharp and Stathead for the bulk of the research in this article, we attempted to investigate what years, exactly, comprise a pitcher’s prime. We analyzed data from 2014-2023, breaking pitchers down by their “seasonal” age — how old they are as of July 1 of that year — in hopes of discovering when they are at their best.
First, let’s do some digging on pure velocity. In what might come as a surprise, the prime of a pitcher’s raw arm might arrive as soon as he arrives in the major leagues.
Over the past 10 seasons, here are the average speeds of a four-seam fastball thrown by pitchers between ages 22 and 36:
22-year-olds: 94.3 mph
23-year-olds: 94.2 mph
24-year-olds: 94.1 mph
25-year-olds: 93.9 mph
26-year-olds: 93.8 mph
27-year-olds: 93.6 mph
28-year-olds: 93.6 mph
29-year-olds: 93.4 mph
30-year-olds: 93.2 mph
31-year-olds: 93.0 mph
32-year-olds: 92.7 mph
33-year-olds: 92.3 mph
34-year-olds: 92.0 mph
35-year-olds: 91.6 mph
36-year-olds: 91.3 mph
There could be some selection bias at play — pitchers called up at 22 tend to be big-time prospects who often have correspondingly big-time arms — but the gist of the data suggests the older an arm is, the less powerful it is. Pitching labs and data-heavy pitcher-development programs exist in large part to try to fight the aging curve.
The younger the arm, though, the more wild, too. Pitchers pitching at 19 years old, an admittedly small bucket, have walked 4.47 batters per nine innings in the majors over the past 10 seasons. During their 22-year-old seasons, pitchers have walked 3.68 hitters per nine, still a high number and a clear sign that velocity often precedes command.
By 25, though, pitchers have whittled down their walks per nine to 3.34. The prime of pitchers’ careers is reached when their arm strength and command are married, when pure stuff can be dotted. The prime seasons tend to start when the command kicks in and tend to end when the arm strength begins to go.
• MLB pitchers at 22 have pitched to a 4.49 ERA over the past 10 seasons.
• At 23, the ERA has dipped to 4.38; at 24, it’s again 4.38. Those 24-year-olds have logged 30,145 innings during this span.
• Pitchers at 25 years old have taken a significant leap both in innings (38,285 ⅓) and in ERA (4.25).
• The innings pitched and ERA continue to improve for 26-year-olds (45,620 ⅓; 4.19) and 27-year-olds (45,671; 4.17).
• The innings start a downward slope for 28-year-olds, who have logged 41,036 ⅔ innings in this span.
The data suggests that an average pitcher over the past 10 seasons has reached his prime in his mid-20s and left his prime in his late-20s or early 30s.
Which might explain why the most coveted pitcher on the free-agent market is a 25-year-old who has thrown zero innings in the major leagues; might explain why a pitcher who, whenever he signs, could earn a contract that is worth double than a battle-tested World Series champion in Montgomery.
In Yamamoto, the Yankees, Mets, Dodgers, Giants, Red Sox, Phillies and probably plenty more can see the future rather than the past.
Today’s back page
Delay of game
Speaking of the aging curve, it sounds as if Aaron Rodgers will not return this season.
The Jets quarterback acknowledged he is not yet 100 percent for a team that now has a zero percent chance of making the playoffs.
Rodgers — who tore his Achilles on Sept. 13 — returning to play this season would be a feather in the cap for Rodgers, who takes great joy in triumphing over the scientific community, but would be a greatly unnecessary risk.
“If I was 100 percent today, I’d be definitely pushing to play,” Rodgers said Tuesday on “The Pat McAfee Show” on ESPN. “But the fact is, I’m not.”
And he likely won’t be for the final three weeks. Rodgers said he would be willing to play before he regains full health if the playoffs were on the line, but the team has collapsed without him.
The next time Rodgers suits up for the Jets, though, he likely still will be surrounded by general manager Joe Douglas, head coach Robert Saleh and offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett. Rodgers praised the Jets’ leadership, which could be enough to guarantee all another year with their chosen quarterback under center.
Hanging with Ja Morant, again
Well, there never were any concerns about his talent.
Fresh off a 25-game suspension, Ja Morant announced his return to the NBA on Tuesday night by looking as if he never left. There was no rust during a 34-point, eight-assist, six-rebound, one-game-winner performance as the Grizzlies beat the Pelicans in New Orleans.
Morant showed the same burst that allowed him to repeatedly get into the paint, including on the final possession of a game that was tied. His hang time might be unmatched, and he used it to out-hang Herb Jones and switch the ball to his left hand, flipping up a bank shot. The buzzer-beater clinched a victory for a Grizzlies squad that improved to 7-19. Yes, they have missed Morant.
There is no doubting the ability. Can Memphis rely on the superstar to remain on the court and remain out of trouble?
The suspension stemmed from Morant flashing what appeared to be a gun on an Instagram live video in May — two months after a similar incident that led to an eight-game suspension.
“I ain’t played a game in eight months. Had a lot of time to learn myself,” Morant said on TNT’s post-game interview. “Lot of hard days where I went through it.”
Questions remain, but not about his game.
What we’re reading 👀
🏀 On the eve of Knicks-Nets Round 1, The Post’s Mike Vaccaro came to praise Julius Randle, the lunch-pail Knicks forward who’s been on a bullyball scoring binge.
🏈 Phew, Tommy DeVito patched things up with the pizza place.
🏒 The Rangers paid back the Maple Leafs with a 5-2 win in Toronto, thanks to a sparkling Igor Shesterkin and key goals from Alexis Lafrenière and Braden Schneider.
⚾ The Post’s Jon Heyman suggests a backup plan for the Mets in free agency if they lose the Yamamoto derby: Blake Snell and Josh Hader.
⚾ The Yankees picked up infielder Jeter Downs, who, um, has an interesting name.
🏒 No third-period drama from the Islanders. Just a tidy home win over the Oilers.
🏈 Owen McCown’s UTSA beat Cole Pennington’s Marshall in the [triple-checks box score] Frisco Bowl. We went deep on the Pennington football lineage back in 2021.
🏀 What are we to make of this St. John’s team? The answers will start arriving in earnest in Wednesday’s Big East opener against Xavier.
Credit: Source link
