Pinstripe Bowl odds, pick, best bet

The 6-6 Rutgers Scarlet Knights battle the 7-5 Miami Hurricanes in Thursday’s Pinstripe Bowl, hosted at Yankee Stadium in The Bronx. 

The Knights figure to have a substantial home-field advantage, as the Tri-state crowd is sure to be heavily pro-Rutgers. 

However, the Knights also have personnel and motivational advantages. 

I’m betting Rutgers bowls over Miami. 

Rutgers vs. Miami odds

Rutgers vs. Miami prediction

(2:15 p.m. ET, ESPN)

Like most bowl-bound squads, several Knights hit the portal or opted out of the bowl game. The biggest name on that list is starting cornerback Max Melton. 

However, Rutgers’ list of unavailable players pales compared to Miami’s. 

When the Hurricanes line up for the Pinstripe Bowl, they’ll be without: 

• Starting quarterback Tyler Van Dyke
• Starting wide receiver Colbie Young
• Starting linebacker Corey Flagg
• Starting center Matt Lee
• Starting left guard Javion Cohen
• Starting edge Jahfari Harvey
• Starting cornerback Daryl Porter Jr.
• Starting safety Kamren Kinchens
• Starting safety James Williams
• Starting nose tackle Leonard Taylor

In case you lost count, that’s 10 starters total with five on both sides of the rock.

The Hurricanes will start third-string quarterback, Jacurri Brown, as backup Emory Williams is also hurt. 

How do you expect the Hurricanes to compete with such limited resources?

They can’t exploit Rutgers’ shorthanded pass defense with a third-string quarterback, and they won’t exploit a mediocre front seven without two starting offensive linemen. 

The Scarlet Knights are a team that doesn’t beat itself. 

The offense ranks 12th nationally in Havoc allowed through a dual-threat rushing attack spearheaded by quarterback Gavin Wimsatt.

The defense ranks seventh in Pro Football Focus’s tackling grades and 30th in EPA per Play allowed. 

The Scarlet Knights went only 6-6, but they played FBS’s second-toughest strength of schedule. For better or worse, this team is battle-tested and consistent. 

Conversely, the Hurricanes are a highly variable team reliant on explosive plays and defensive Havoc.

They’re inconsistent, and I don’t trust the shorthanded Hurricanes to give their best effort in the Pinstripe Bowl at Yankee Stadium.

Mario Cristobal-led teams generally don’t show up for bowl games, going 2-4-1 against the spread (ATS) in bowl games.

Conversely, Greg Schiano-led teams are highly motivated in bowls, going 5-1-1 ATS and covering the number by an average margin of eight points per game.

Betting on College Football?

I expect the Scarlet Knights to limit mistakes, run the ball and play good defense against a Miami team at 50% full strength. 

That should be enough to squeak out Schiano’s sixth Bowl victory. 

I’d rather not lay 2.5 points in what I expect to be a weird, low-scoring Rutgers game that could finish 12-10, but I feel confident in betting the Scarlet Knights on the ML at anything better than -140. 

Rutgers vs. Miami pick

Rutgers ML (-120) at FanDuel | Play to ML (-140)