If you’re looking to sew a few Chiefs props together for a Super Bowl 2024 parlay, there are varying angles that can boost your chances while balancing out the risks.
Begin with the moderate risk of taking the Under on Patrick Mahomes’ passing yardage prop.
He’s carried the mail throughout the playoffs as usual, but because he’s Patrick Mahomes and this is the all-familiar Super Bowl, his line feels like a stretch at 262.5.
Mahomes’ success in this year’s run hasn’t been due to high-yardage volume.
He’s sustained a 100.7 passer rating and a 68.0 completion percentage primarily by throwing checkdown passes.
The game is indoors at a familiar stadium, but it’s not against the Raiders.
The 49ers have the fifth-toughest secondary in net yards gained per attempt and Mahomes hasn’t hit this mark since Week 16 vs. New England anyway.
Next is the safe leg of Isiah Pacheco to score an anytime touchdown.
The ball should be running through him at a consistent rate as it has in all three playoff contests that he’s averaged 21 carries.
Pacheco is also in the midst of a seven-game touchdown streak.
He finished the season top 10 in red zone carries at his position; this included eight goal line opportunities.
Finally, I’m moving the line on Rashee Rice’s receiving yards to 50+ instead of 67.5.
Betting on the NFL?
The rookie has revealed himself to be a bona fide No. 1 wideout, but like the rest of the Chiefs passing game, his success has come in waves.
He has big-play potential with minimum 25-yard longest catches in two of the last three games.
Rice gets a healthy target share and ranked No. 3 among wide receivers in yards after catch, yet I’m still hesitant given his boom-or-bust numbers.
No. 4 hasn’t hit 68 yards in eight of his last 13 games, so I’d rather take a friendlier line on his alt prop as a recipe to a parlay than challenge Vegas.
The play: Parlay Mahomes Under 262.5 yards + Pacheco anytime TD + Rice 50+ receiving yards (+424, FanDuel).
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