Big 12 Tournament odds, best bets

After a night in which we endured one of the worst beats of the season – a call reversal on the final play of regulation that allowed Marquette to cover over Villanova in overtime – we’re back at it, moving on to the Big 12 semifinals in Kansas City.

If you also backed Boston College (+5.5) as I did on Thursday, then you know the pain I was in after the Eagles lost in the same exact fashion as Villanova did roughly 20 minutes apart.

I’m not sure that exact sequence has ever happened to me before.

Anyway, short-term memory in the betting streets.

It’s time to brush ourselves off and move on with a look at an intriguing top-15 matchup oddsmakers are basically calling a toss-up.

Baylor vs. Iowa State odds

Baylor vs. Iowa State analysis

While either team could easily win this game, with no surprise on either result, I’m staying away from spread and moneyline bets.

Instead, I’ve gotten to at least lukewarm on the total now that the public has bet it down to a reasonable number.

Baylor plays at a sluggish pace, but the Bears own KenPom’s fifth-best adjusted offensive rating and the 14th-best eFG%.

Iowa State has KP’s second-ranked adjusted defense, but the Cyclones’ defensive style doesn’t exactly mesh well against Baylor. 

Defensively, ISU yields the seventh-highest 3-point attempt percentage in the country, which also typically leads to more quality 3-point looks for opponents.

Baylor has the nation’s fifth-best 3-point shooting percentage. The Bears shot 50% from deep in their 70-68 victory against Iowa State in early February.

I’m not saying that will happen again, but at least there was something tangible behind that theory. 

Unlike the Bears, the Cyclones have a decent pep in their step on offense, ranking 121st in average possession length.

In theory, ISU should have its cake and eat it, too, when opting to shoot 2-pointers.

Baylor is poor at defending 2-pointers, and that’s where the Cyclones rely on a bulk of their scoring, ranking 57th in 2-point distribution.

Betting on College Basketball?

Baylor is outside the top 200 (via KenPom) in 2-point percentage defense and block percentage.

While you could argue that Baylor is due for negative 3-point regression when compared to the first matchup, the Cyclones should see better success from inside the arc this time.

Iowa State shot worse than 40% from 2-point land against the Bears in the first matchup.

Both teams are above average in drawing fouls. If this game is as close as the oddsmakers say it will be, I’m expecting some early second-half bonuses.

The pace won’t blow anyone away, but I think the strengths, weaknesses, and tendencies match up well on both sides of the ball, and Baylor has one of the most efficient offenses in the country.

Baylor vs. Iowa State pick

I didn’t love the opening 136.5 number, but it’s time to jump on this lower line.

Analytics are not always right (and actually have been wrong A LOT this year), but KenPom, BartTorvik, and Haslametrics all have this game exceeding the 133.5 total.

Pick: Over 133.5 points (-115, FanDuel)