We are firmly into the business end of the 2023-24 Premier League season and every race is still wide open.
Only three points separate Liverpool (67 points, +40 goal difference), Arsenal (65 points, +46 GD) and Manchester City (64 points, +35 GD) at the top of the table with nine matches to go.
The battle for relegation is just as chaotic with five teams (Brentford, Everton, Nottingham Forest, Luton Town and Burnley) still scrapping for survival. Only Sheffield United seems a sure thing to go down at this point.
And don’t expect much to change before the weekend.
While anything can happen in 90 minutes of soccer, all three title contenders are massive favorites for their midweek matches and two of them are taking on relegation fodder.
Here’s a look at one of those matches – Arsenal vs. Luton Town (2:30 p.m. ET, Wednesday, USA Network/NBC.com).
Arsenal vs. Luton Town odds
| Arsenal | Luton Town | Draw | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1000 | +2200 | +1050 | O3.5 (-165) U3.5 (+120) |
Arsenal vs. Luton Town analysis
You have to admire Luton Town’s approach to its first season in the Premier League.
The Hatters are on a shoestring budget compared to the big clubs in England’s top flight, but they didn’t let that deter them from giving it a real go.
Most of the time when small-market teams get promoted, they try to scratch and claw their way to survival through gritty defense and throwing as many men behind the ball as possible. But not Luton Town.
Rather than opting to sit deep and try to frustrate opponents, Luton Town has engaged teams in frenetic contests. They are wildly fun, but the Hatters just don’t have the talent – especially on defense – to keep pace with top clubs in the Premier League.
As entertaining as they are, Luton’s high-wire act has put its threadbare backline under enormous pressure all season.
In 30 matches, the Hatters have allowed the second-most goals (62) in the Premier League and there’s nothing fluky about it.
Luton ranks last in the Premier League in expected goals against, last in big-scoring-chances conceded and 19th in shots allowed per 90 minutes.
It’s no wonder the Hatters are a massive +2200 underdog at Arsenal on Wednesday. And as tempting as that number is for longshot punters, it might not even be long enough.
Last season, Brentford upset Manchester City as a +2200 underdog right before the World Cup break. Brentford was well ahead of where Luton Town is right now.
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Arsenal vs. Luton Town pick
Instead of looking for Luton to pull off the shocker, bettors can find value on Arsenal running up the score.
There’s a decent chance that goal difference will come into play in the title race, so Arsenal has every reason to hang a crooked number on the Hatters in this spot.
The Bet: Arsenal team total over 4.5 (+320, FanDuel)
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