If you’ve ever wanted to see a prime example of bookmakers baking in a “must-win” tax into a betting line, look no further than Saturday’s Premier League match between Manchester City and Wolverhampton Wanderers.
City, who enter the weekend one point behind Arsenal with a game in hand in the title race, are -1200 on the three-way moneyline, while the Wolves are sitting at +2700.
These odds are absurd. There’s no other way to put it.
Yes, Manchester City should be a massive favorite Saturday afternoon, but these numbers are ridiculous.
Consider this: Manchester City hosted Luton Town, who is 21 points and 22 goals behind Wolves in the table, on April 13. City romped the Hatters, 5-1, but that’s not the point.
What is notable is that Luton Town closed as a +2200 underdog in that match.
There’s no world in which Wolverhampton – who beat City, 2-1, in their first meeting this season – should be a bigger underdog than Luton.
And it’s not like City has looked invincible lately.
They – and Arsenal, too – have played a ton of soccer in a short period of time and seemingly are feeling the effects of the fixture congestion.
Their win over Nottingham Forest last week was more lucky than impressive.
Forest, who are in the thick of a relegation scrap, created 2.2 expected goals and held City to just 0.9 in a 2-0 defeat to the defending champions.
That win was just another worrying sign that City are not at their best right now. And how could they be?
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This will be the 10th match for City across three competitions since March 31 and every single one of those games had significant stakes.
Wolves have two wins against Tottenham, two wins against Chelsea and a win over City this season.
They can punch up.
This number is 100% worth playing, even if it’s a bet you’re very likely to lose.
Recommendation: Wolverhampton (27/1, FanDuel Sportsbook).
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