What’s not to love about Oklahoma State’s offense?
With Doak Award-winning RB Ollie Gordon leading the attack behind an experienced offensive line (more than 200 career starts with seven seniors), the Pokes can move the ball consistently on the ground while setting up valuable play-action passes for ever-improving QB Alan Bowman (1,200-plus play-action passing yards in 2023).
While I have questions about OSU’s defense, it could improve with nine starters returning from last year’s unit.
Overall, the Pokes return 19 starters from last year’s Big 12 Championship runner-up roster, ranking first nationally in experience.
Conversely, Arkansas ranks 88th in experience.
I worry about the offensive line (62 career starts) and linebacking corps (lost all four starters from last season).
There are major depth concerns across the defense, and on offense, it’s uncertain how Boise State transfer QB Taylen Green will perform in the SEC after three years in the MWC.
I always want to bet more experienced teams against less experienced ones in September.
The former is generally more game-ready in non-conference play.
The Bowman-Gordon duo should roll over a questionable Razorback defense that ranked 74th in EPA per rush allowed last season.
The pick: Oklahoma State -10.
IOWA STATE (+2.5) over Iowa
I’m bullish on Iowa State. With 19 starters returning from last year’s roster that improved mightily after a slow start, I think the Cyclones could explode this year.
I love QB Rocco Becht, 2023’s Big 12 Freshman of the Year.
Two of his top three receivers from last year return alongside all five offensive line starters.
The Cyclones are strong and experienced in the secondary.
Though the Hawkeyes always field an elite defense, I’m not ready to believe that Tim Lester has suddenly fixed a hapless offense after a 40-0 victory against FCS Illinois State.
I don’t overreact to Week 1 FBS vs. FCS results, and I’m far from ready to buy in on QB1 Cade McNamara.
At the minimum, this should be a sloppy, lower-scoring game decided by one possession, and I’m willing to take the points in a points-at-a-premium battle.
Cyclone head coach Matt Campbell is 31-16 against the spread as an underdog of three or more points in his career.
The pick: Iowa State +2.5.
OREGON (-19.5) over Boise State
The Ducks looked awful against FCS Idaho (24-14 win) last week, but they dominated the boxscore, tripling the Vandals in first downs (31-10) and more than doubling them in total yards (487-217).
Oregon was unlucky with ill-timed penalties, skewing the final result.
Again, I don’t overreact to Week 1 FBS vs. FCS results, so I remain high on the Ducks as national title contenders.
While Boise State is among the favorites to represent the Group of Five in the College Football Playoff, I’ve downgraded the Broncos significantly after their performance against Georgia Southern.
Betting on College Football?
I had concerns about the defense, but it’s much worse than I imagined.
Georgia Southern dropped 45 points on 99 total plays, generating 0.30 EPA per rush (90th percentile) with 10 explosive plays (12 percent, 85th percentile).
What do you think Dan Lanning, Dillon Gabriel and the Ducks will do? They might drop 60.
Though superstar RB Ashton Jeanty obliterated Georgia Southern’s weak, undersized defensive line (school-record 269 yards and six touchdowns), he will be less effective against stiffer competition.
Oregon has talent and experience on defense, with nine returning starters from last year’s unit.
Lanning should key in on Jeanty, trying to force inexperienced QB Maddux Madsen into uncomfortable passing situations.
Last week: 1-2. Clemson (L), Syracuse (L), Hawaii (W)
2024 Season: 1-2.
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