We’re only through two weeks of the NFL season, and it’s too early to overreact to star players underperforming.
That’s the theme of my Week 3 player prop selections, as I’m looking to buy low on two wide receivers in phenomenal matchups this week.
I went 4-0 in my debut with this column last week, so let’s run it back with some more winners in Week 3.
Read below for two of my best buy-low player props.
(Keep in mind that lines move throughout the week, sometimes drastically, so if you need help on whether numbers are still playable, hit me up on X at @wayne_sports_).
Best bets: Week 3 NFL player props
Chris Olave Over 61.5 Receiving Yards (-112, BetRivers)
The Saints have been lighting the NFL on fire for two weeks, but Chris Olave hasn’t had a proper breakout game yet.
I believe that changes in Week 3 against an Eagles defense that ranks 31st against the pass by DVOA and has allowed the third-most yards to opposing wide receivers through two weeks.
Olave leads all qualified wide receivers with an 89.5% separation percentage, according to PFF. Additionally, he’s running a lot more in-breaking routes this season, allowing him more opportunities for yards after the catch over the middle of the field.
Last week, he led the team with a massive 57% air-yard share and 37.5% target share.
I also love that the Saints are running 11 personnel at the third-lowest rate in the NFL, consolidating targets among Olave and Rashid Shaheed.
According to Fantasy Points Data, both have a 74.4% route-run rate, and the next-closest WR on the team is Mason Tipton, at 18.6%.
Money has hit the over 4.5 receptions for Olave, pushing it up to -145. Olave has hit 62+ receiving yards in 14 of 19 career games with 5+ catches, averaging 88.3 yards in those spots.
Olave is projected for 69.4 receiving yards on FTN, giving us a strong edge on this prop.
D.J. Moore Over 61.5 Receiving Yards (-110, bet365)
It’s been a slow start to the season for D.J. Moore, but he leads all wide receivers with a 93.8% route-run rate and has a 36.3% air-yard share, according to Fantasy Points Data.
It’s translated to just 36 and 53 receiving yards, but that underlying data is strong and suggests a breakout game is on the horizon.
The Colts’ secondary looked like a significant weakness entering the season, and that was before they lost top boundary cornerback JuJu Brents.
Jaylon Jones ranks 103rd out of 105 qualified corners in PFF coverage grades, and Samuel Womack III is a former fifth-round pick with just 154 career coverage snaps at the NFL level.
The Packers had an incredibly run-heavy game plan last week with Jordan Love out, and they didn’t attempt to exploit this secondary, but the Colts rank 29th in DVOA against WR1s. In Week 1, Nico Collins torched this defense with six catches for 117 yards.
Betting on the NFL?
I expect Caleb Williams to start to find a rhythm as the season progresses, and he should have more time in the pocket this week.
The Colts rank just 26th in pass-rush win rate and could be without their top two defensive linemen this week, DeForest Buckner and Laiatu Latu.
Moore was visibly frustrated after the game on Sunday, and I expect the Bears to continue feeding him the ball.
He has 7+ targets in both games so far, and he exceeded this yardage mark in 11 of his last 18 games with 7+ targets before this season, averaging 91.9 yards in those games.
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Jacob Wayne handicaps college football and the NFL for the New York Post. He’s up 84.5 units across the two sports with a 6.27% ROI.
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