Shipping groups shying away from the Strait of Hormuz

Some shipowners are opting to steer clear of the strategically important Strait of Hormuz, according to the world’s largest shipping association, reflecting a growing sense of industry unease as the Israel-Iran conflict rages on.

Israel’s surprise attack on Iran’s military and nuclear infrastructure on Friday has been followed by four days of escalating warfare between the regional foes.

That has prompted shipowners to exercise an extra degree of caution in both the Red Sea and the Strait of Hormuz, a critical gateway to the world’s oil industry — and a vital entry point for container ships calling at Dubai’s massive Jebel Ali Port.

Jakob Larsen, head of security at Bimco, which represents global shipowners, said the Israel-Iran conflict seems to be escalating, causing concerns in the shipowner community and prompting a “modest drop” in the number of ships sailing through the area.

Bimco, which typically doesn’t encourage vessels to stay away from certain areas, said the situation has introduced an element of uncertainty.

“Circumstances and risk tolerance vary widely across shipowners. It appears that most shipowners currently choose to proceed, while some seem to stay away,” Larsen told CNBC by email.

“During periods of heightened security threats, freight rates and crew wages often rise, creating an economic incentive for some to take the risk of passing through conflict zones. While these dynamics may seem rudimentary, they are the very mechanisms that have sustained global trade through conflicts and wars for centuries,” he added.

The Strait of Hormuz, which connects the Persian Gulf to the Arabian Sea, is recognized as one of the world’s most important oil chokepoints.

In 2023, oil flows through the waterway averaged 20.9 million barrels per day, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, accounting for about 20% of global petroleum liquids consumption.

The inability of oil to traverse through the Strait of Hormuz, even temporarily, can ratchet up global energy prices, raise shipping costs and create significant supply delays.

Alongside oil, the Strait of Hormuz is also key for global container trade. That’s because ports in this region (Jebel Ali and Khor Fakkan) are transshipment hubs, which means they serve as intermediary points in global shipping networks.

The majority of cargo volumes from those ports are destined for Dubai, which has become a hub for the movement of freight with feeder services in the Persian Gulf, South Asia and East Africa.

Peter Tirschwell, vice president for maritime and trade at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said there have been indications that shipping groups are starting to “shy away” from navigating the Strait of Hormuz in recent days, without naming any specific firms.

“You could see the impact that the Houthi rebels had on shipping through the Red Sea. Even though there [are] very few recent attacks on shipping in that region, nevertheless the threat has sent the vast majority of container trade moving around the south of Africa. That has been happening for the past year,” Tirschwell told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia” on Monday.

“The ocean carriers have no plans to go back in mass into the Red Sea and so, the very threat of military activity around a narrow important routing like the Strait of Hormuz is going to be enough to significantly disrupt shipping,” he added.

Freight rates jumped after the Israeli attacks on Iran last week. Indeed, data published Monday from analytics firm Kpler showed Mideast Gulf tanker freight rates to China surged 24% on Friday to $1.67 per barrel.

The upswing in VLCC (very large crude carrier) freight rates reflected the largest daily move year-to-date, albeit from a relative lull in June, and reaffirmed the level of perceived risk in the area.

Analysts at Kpler said more increases in freight rates are likely as the situation remains highly unstable, although maritime war risk premium remains unchanged for now.

David Smith, head of hull and marine liabilities at insurance broker McGill and Partners, said shipping insurance rates, at least for the time being, “remain stable with no noticeable increases since the latest hostilities between Israel and Iran.”

But that “could change dramatically,” depending on whether there is escalation in the area, he added.

“With War quotes only valid for 48 hours prior to entry into the excluded ‘Breach’ area, Underwriters do have the ability to rapidly increase premiums in line with the perceived risk,” Smith told CNBC by email.

A spokesperson for German-based container shipping liner Hapag-Lloyd said the threat level for the Strait of Hormuz remains “significant,” albeit without an immediate risk to the maritime sector.

Hapag-Lloyd said it does not foresee any bigger issues in crossing the waterway for the moment, while acknowledging that the situation could change in a “very short” period of time.

The company added that it has no immediate plans to traverse the Red Sea, however, noting it hasn’t done so since the end of December 2023.

— CNBC’s Lori Ann LaRocco contributed to this report.