The college football landscape has completely changed over the last few years, but one thing has remained constant: The Mountain West Conference runs through Boise.
Fresh off an appearance in the College Football Playoff, Boise State is the only odds-on favorite in any conference going into the year.
The Broncos have won the Mountain West two years in a row, and they’ve been to the conference championship in seven of the last eight seasons.
Anything short of a three-peat would be deemed a disappointment for Boise State, but there are a handful of teams in this region who could give the blue-turfers a run for their money.
2025 Mountain West odds
| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| Boise State | -155 |
| UNLV | +650 |
| San Jose State | +750 |
| Fresno State | +900 |
| Colorado State | 14/1 |
| Air Force | 16/1 |
| Hawaii | 20/1 |
| San Diego State | 33/1 |
| Wyoming | 33/1 |
| Utah State | 50/1 |
| Nevada | 75/1 |
| New Mexico | 150/1 |
2025 Mountain West best bets, picks, and predictions
The Favorite
You’d think that Boise State would be projected to take a step back after losing all-world running back Ashton Jeanty to the NFL, but the Broncos are such a machine at this point that they could be better than they were in 2024.
Spencer Danielson, in his second full year at the helm, didn’t have too many holes to patch up aside from the Jeanty-sized one in the backfield, and he’ll have the comfort of knowing that Maddux Madsen will be back under center after throwing for over 3,000 yards in 2024.
The departure of Jeanty will put Madsen under more pressure, but he shouldn’t have to light it up because the Broncos’ defense projects to be a real force in the Mountain West.
The Broncos are clearly the best team in this conference, but that doesn’t make them a good bet to win the MWC for a third year on the spin.
At -155, you’d need to think the Broncos have better than a 60.8 percent chance of winning the Mountain West to start to see value, and that seems a little rich considering the quality of competition around them.
The Dark Horses
UNLV’s rise in the NIL era has turned heads, and they’ve got some heavy expectations in Year 1 under Dan Mullen, the former Mississippi State and Florida head coach, despite a massive amount of roster turnover.
The Rebels rank 132nd in returning production, but the program won’t be in disarray thanks to some deep pockets helping recruit plenty of former blue-chip prospects.
Nonetheless, a team fielding upwards of 20 new starters is not one you’d feel comfortable backing as a +650 second favorite in a conference with Boise State.
San Jose State is getting some hype as a potential upstart after a strong first season under former Navy coach Ken Niumatalolo, but the price has come down too much since opening to be interesting now.
The Spartans are a team worth backing in other ways, however.
Fresno State has been a model program in the Group of 5 for years and years, but the Bulldogs have undergone so much change in the past few seasons that it’s hard to get excited about backing them at 9/1.
Perhaps former North Dakota State head coach Matt Entz gets them rolling in Year 1, but the price isn’t for me.
Best bets for the Mountain West
Anything can happen in the Group of 5, but this isn’t the conference where you want to be careful about hunting huge prices.
That said, there are two teams in the middle of the board that are intriguing options for a decent payday.
Air Force to win the Mountain West (16/1, bet365)
First up is Air Force at 16/1.
The Falcons looked destined for a terrible campaign in 2024, but they turned a 1-7 record into 5-7 with four impressive victories to close out the season.
That was something a lot of bettors put in their back pocket, hoping that the growth that the Falcons showed in the second half will carry over into 2025.
Betting on College Football?
Momentum from one season to the next is dubious for most teams in this era of college football because of the turnover, but it’s different for the Service Academies.
The biggest question mark will be at quarterback, with Josh Johnson a relative unknown. If he’s able to run the show efficiently, Air Force becomes dangerous in a hurry.
Hawaii to win the Mountain West (20/1, BetMGM)
This could be the make-or-break year for Timmy Chang at his alma mater.
Hawaii has shown some improvements in three years under Chang, but they’ll need to make a serious dent in 2025 to keep his seat cool.
The good news for Chang and the Rainbow Warriors is that they’ve got a real shot at making some noise thanks to an easy schedule and a high-ceiling quarterback who is drawing comparisons to…Chang.
Hawaii fans got just a glimpse of Micah Alejado in 2024, but the 5-foot-10 quarterback made the most of it, throwing for 469 yards and five touchdowns against New Mexico at the end of the campaign.
Alejado will need to be prolific for Hawaii to have a chance, but his pedigree and first impression suggest there’s a chance he is just that.
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
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