Everything pointed to a runaway season for Liberty in 2024.
The Flames were coming off a 13-1 campaign, they had Kaidon Salter returning after a monster year under center and head coach Jamey Chadwell was entering his second year.
Liberty was a clear favorite to win Conference USA and there was a lot of buzz about the Flames representing the Group of 5 in the College Football Playoff.
Not so fast.
Liberty finished 8-4 overall, and just 5-3 in C-USA.
It was a reminder to assume nothing in this sport, especially in the Group of 5.
2025 Conference USA odds
| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| Liberty | +120 |
| Western Kentucky | +350 |
| Louisiana Tech | +800 |
| Jacksonville State | +850 |
| Sam Houston State | 10/1 |
| FIU | 14/1 |
| UTEP | 14/1 |
| Middle Tennessee | 18/1 |
| New Mexico State | 25/1 |
| Kennesaw State | 33/1 |
The Favorite
Despite their down year and the transfer of Salter to Colorado, Liberty is once again the runaway favorite in Conference USA, perhaps the weakest in the Group of 5.
It may seem odd to install the Flames as such a short favorite, but the reality is that this program can outspend the rest of the teams in the conference by a wide margin.
The Flames may be breaking in a new quarterback — Ethan Vasko, a transfer from Coastal Carolina, is the projected starter — but he will have plenty of experience in front of — and around — him.
It’s also likely that Vasko and the offense won’t be asked to be prolific because Liberty’s defense projects to be one of the best in the Group of 5.
With a terrific coach, plenty of money and a lot of talent and experience throughout the roster, Liberty remains a step above the rest of C-USA.
We could have said the same thing last year, though.
Dark horses
Western Kentucky is the second favorite behind Liberty, and that seems a bit crazy considering the amount of turnover in Bowling Green.
The Hilltoppers saw 80 total transfers (in and out) take place over the offseason, and they’ll have new coordinators on both sides of the ball.
Tyson Helton has been steady as she goes for WKU, but he’ll need to work some serious magic for this team to win eight-plus games for the fifth year running.
There will also be upheaval at Jacksonville State (Rich Rodriguez has departed for West Virginia) and Sam Houston State (K.C. Keeler left for Temple, and defensive coordinator Skyler Cassity took a bunch of his players to North Texas), making them unappealing at their short prices to provide a challenge for Liberty.
The case for Louisiana Tech is that there’s not much of a difference between the Bulldogs and the teams priced above them, but it’s been pretty dire under Sonny Cumbie, and the odds are not enticing enough to bet on a turnaround just because the rest of the conference is wanting.
Long shots
The path to success for the also-rans in C-USA is that the rest of the conference won’t put up that much resistance.
That’s the starting point, at least.
For a team like Middle Tennessee State, it may be enough if Derek Mason gets things moving in Year 2. But considering how things went in his first year in Murfreesboro, it’s more of a hope than a sound bet.
Then there’s FIU, which is just hoping Willie Simmons can lead them out of no man’s land in his debut season with the Panthers.
Kennesaw State returns plenty of its roster, but that may not be a good thing considering how it played in 2024.
There is one team, however, that does stand out as a good bet in this range.
Betting on College Football?
Best bet to win Conference USA
UTEP to win Conference USA (14/1, bet365) | UTEP to make the CFB Playoff (300/1, DraftKings)
We’ll start with UTEP, who profile as a potential bounce-back candidate after a poor but also quite unlucky 3-9 campaign in Scotty Walden’s first year in El Paso.
Walden tried to accelerate the turnaround by getting aggressive in the transfer portal, notably adding former five-star recruit and USC quarterback Malachi Nelson to his ranks.
Nelson immediately becomes one of the most interesting players in the Group of 5. His ceiling is as high as anybody’s at this level, but he’s not come close to hitting it while at USC and Boise State.
If Nelson can click with his new offensive coordinator Mark Cala, the Miners could turn this conference on its head.
I think the Miners are absolutely worth a bet to win C-USA at 14/1 odds, and I’d also consider a very small sprinkle on them to make the Playoff at 300/1. Picks up!
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
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