Some not-so-welcome faces return to MetLife on Thursday night as the Giants get a short-week draw against the division rival Eagles.
The Eagles are reeling after blowing a 14-point lead against the Denver Broncos in an 18-17 loss.
Their offense has been one big disappointment so far this season, with wide receivers complaining about targets, and the Eagles rolling with the run, run, Tush Push offense so far this season.
Philadelphia is arguably too reliant on that play at this point, and the offense seems a tad predictable with how much the Eagles rely on the running game.
Nothing like a get-right matchup against the Giants to cure any sickness that they may be feeling.
The Eagles are seven-point favorites as we head into Week 6 of an NFL season that is flying by.
Giants vs. Eagles ‘Thursday Night Football’ prediction
Big Blue beat themselves on Sunday, as Jaxson Dart and the Giants turned the ball over on five straight possessions en route to an embarrassing loss to the previously winless Saints.
Turning around on a short week to face the defending Super Bowl champion Eagles isn’t what the doctor ordered.
In fact, my model has this game as one of the better values on the slate from a betting perspective.
Betting on the NFL?
My model projects the score of this contest to be 27.25 to 15.90 in favor of the Eagles, implying a five-point difference against the spread in Philadelphia’s favor.
To be fair, those Giants numbers factor in three games of Russell Wilson behind center and three games without Andrew Thomas protecting their quarterback’s blindside.
But how much better is Jaxson Dart than Wilson against the spread? Well, DraftKings‘ Director of Sports Operations, Johnny Avello, chimed in.
“We’ve got Jaxson Dart worth about two points more to the spread than Russell Wilson,” Avello said. “His mobility creates more opportunities, and the Giants’ offense has simply looked sharper with him under center.”
The projected score that my model has includes two full Dart starts, but even with the two points fully added in, you’re looking at a nine-point spread and a two-point advantage in our favor.
I’ll back the model here even if Dart is a more substantial upgrade over Wilson than the sportsbooks think.
The Giants are 1-6 against the Eagles straight-up in their last seven games, with one win coming against Philadelphia’s backups in a meaningless contest as playoff seeding was already locked up.
It remains to be seen whether the Giants can actually stop the run, and the Eagles are the worst matchup for them to find out.
The Giants rank last in stopping the run, per DVOA.
Betting on the NFL?
Whether it’s linebackers not holding up their end of the bargain or the defensive line only focused on rushing the passer, it’s a startling reality for the Giants that they will struggle to fix Thursday night.
Take the Eagles -7 in this divisional matchup.
As for a player prop, there isn’t a whole lot of data I will use to support this, but I think the Eagles will have a mutiny on their hands if they don’t get A.J. Brown involved in the offense.
Brown and DeVonta Smith have had multiple reports leak that they are unhappy with their roles.
Consider this a stylistical change that I am projecting a bit in Philadelphia.
Brown has two touchdowns in five games (40 percent touchdown rate) against the Giants, averaging 68.6 receiving yards and four receptions in that time.
The +190 odds you’re getting on FanDuel and bet365 are too much to ignore as the Eagles look to rein in their clearly disgruntled receiver.
THE PLAYS: Eagles -7 (-110, DraftKings) | AJ Brown to score a touchdown (+190, FanDuel or bet365)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Erich Richter is a brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt but he has a black belt in MMA betting. During the football season he’s showcased massive profits at The Post in the player prop market the last two seasons. While constantly betting long shots, his return on investment is 30.15 percent since 2022.
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