Gold hits new record as Powell probe, Venezuela, Iran crisis ignites demand

Gold hit a fresh record high on Monday, extending a blistering rally as investors piled into havens amid a swirl of geopolitical and policy shocks in recent days.

Spot gold advanced 2% to hit over $4,600 an ounce for the first time, before paring gains slightly, data from LSEG showed. Prices have risen around 6% this year alone so far.

An investigation into Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and speculation over whether it could hasten a leadership change at the Fed has added a fresh layer of policy risk: “Especially if it results in him stepping down and then leaving the Fed earlier than scheduled and is replaced by someone more in favor of rate cuts,” said Morningstar equity analyst Jon Mills.

Federal prosecutors are examining a $2.5 billion renovation of the Fed’s Washington headquarters and Powell’s testimony to Congress, Powell said Sunday night. The Fed Chair added that the investigation stems from President Donald Trump’s long-running frustration with the Fed’s reluctance to cut interest rates as aggressively or as quickly as he has urged.

The scenario that the appointment of a new Fed Chair may pave the way for faster interest-rate cuts, is traditionally supportive for gold. Lower interest rates tend to lift gold by reducing the opportunity cost of holding a metal that pays no yield. That effect has been amplified by recent U.S. economic data that pointed to a cooling labor market.

Latest flashpoints involving Iran and Venezuela also further catalyzed gold’s appeal as a safe haven.

Tensions with Iran have resurfaced after Washington signaled it is weighing options to respond to unrest in the country. The U.S. also launched a military operation in Venezuela at the start of the year that saw the capture of the country’s president Nicolas Maduro last weekend.

“They all add to the narrative of heightened geopolitical uncertainty that led us to pick gold as one of highest conviction asset classes this year,” said Rajat Bhattacharya, senior investment strategist at Standard Chartered.

While the U.S. action in Venezuela has appeared to reach a relatively swift resolution, the episode still highlights the persistence of geopolitical uncertainty and the risk of flare-ups across multiple regions, Bank of Singapore’s Eli Lee similarly echoed.

In such an environment, Lee expects gold prices to see further support amid an ongoing backdrop of geopolitical unpredictability. Beyond geopolitics, the structural case for gold remains intact, the bank added, as investors reassess portfolio allocations following years of sanctions, geopolitical fragmentation and fiscal-monetary complexity. 

HSBC said trading momentum could carry prices to $5,000 an ounce in the first half of 2026, even as volatility remains elevated and pullbacks may become more frequent.

The London-headquartered bank attributed the rally to a combination of safe-haven demand, a weaker U.S. dollar and policy uncertainty, noting that its FX strategists expect the greenback to remain soft in 2026. 

“Mounting fiscal deficits in the U.S. and other nations are encouraging gold demand and may be a key factor going forward,” the bank said.

Central banks are also expected to remain strong buyers this year as they diversify away from the dollar, although HSBC cautioned that purchases may fall below the peaks seen between 2022 and 2024 due to high prices.

Gold prices saw a nearly 65% yearly gain in 2025, the highest in decades.