Prediction markets such as Kalshi and Polymarket have consumed the sports world throughout the past year, but the NFL wants no part in it for Super Bowl 2026.
There will be no prediction market commercials aired during the Patriots’ clash with the Seahawks in The Big Game on Feb. 8., according to Front Office Sports.
Along with topics such as tobacco, pornography, and firearms, prediction markets are on the list of the NFL’s “prohibited categories.” While the NHL and MLS have embraced prediction markets, the NFL has remained firmly opposed; commercials for prediction markets have been banned from game broadcasts from the start of the 2025 season.
League officials’ primary concern around sports event contracts revolve around the lack of “safeguards” found in regulated sports betting, such as “prohibitions on easily manipulated markets” and “official league data requirements.”
Sports betting will still be advertised, but the league will limit the amount of commercials during the broadcast to no more than six. Major traditional sportsbooks like DraftKings and FanDuel are expected to run a Super Bowl ad, though neither can promote their prediction-market products.
Depending on local broadcasts, prediction-market commercials could still appear in some markets.
Ad prices for 30-second spots during the game have risen from last year’s rough $8 million per spot estimate to $10 million for this year’s broadcast on NBC according to Front Office Sports.
Kalshi, Polymarket and other popular prediction market platforms have the resources to buy a Super Bowl ad as the New York Stock Exchange agreed to invest up to $2 billion in Polymarket, while Kalshi announced $1 billion in new funding in December.
Ironically, Kalshi offers markets to trade on advertisements that will run in Super Bowl 2026, including “which brands will advertise during the Big Game 2026?” and “who will appear in a big game ad before Feb 9, 2026?” Anthropic (64 percent) and Sydney Sweeney (82 percent) respectively lead those markets. As of Thursday night, those markets had roughly $1.2 million and $12,300, respectively.
Last year’s Super Bowl drew an average of 127.7 million viewers across all platforms, according to Fox, which was a U.S. single-event record.
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