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Oddsmaker reveals best case scenario for sportsbook ahead of Super Bowl 2026

February 1, 2026
in Sports
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Sportsbooks are licking their chops as Super Bowl Sunday turns into the biggest betting bonanza of the year.

With over a billion dollars expected to be bet legally on Seahawks vs. Patriots, the exact matchup itself is one seemingly no one bet on happening.

“Both teams were in the 60 to 70/1 range to win the Super Bowl preseason, so whoever wins this game will be the most unlikely Super Bowl winner in DraftKings history,” Johnny Avello, DraftKings’ director of sports operations, told The Post.

Avello added that, in preseason, both teams were power-rated as bottom-third teams in the NFL, along with the Giants, Jets, and other bottom dwellers.

As for Sunday’s matchup that has shockingly come together, DraftKings is seeing loads of action on the Seahawks, but they welcome more of it.

“We’re Seahawks fans right now,” Avello told The Post. “The game itself has Seahawks money on the spread. The overall future book has the Patriots as a pretty big liability.”

Avello continued that the Patriots were as high as 25/1 to win the Super Bowl in the weeks leading up to the playoffs, and since they’re a popular team, DraftKings has a significant liability on them.

“Not a bad thing for us at DraftKings, if we have a liability on the Patriots, but we’re taking money on the Seahawks point spread, we’re not in a bad spot,” Avello continued. “People will continue to bet on the Patriots on the moneyline. “


Oddsmaker reveals best case scenario for sportsbook ahead of Super Bowl 2026
Drake Maye has had a tough postseason after facing tough defenses. Getty Images

The spread for the game opened at 3.5 on DraftKings Sunday night, but has since moved to 4.5 and stayed there throughout the week.

As for moneyline bettors, it is unsurprising that the Patriots are getting the lion’s share of the moneyline bets, but those appear to be smaller wagers, nothing too big.

“No crazy sharp action right now, but we expect that to come next week sometime,” Avello added.

The best-case scenario for DraftKings is the Seahawks winning by a field goal or less, saving the sportsbook from a big futures liability on New England, while the favorites’ against-the-spread bets would be a loss for bettors.

But the real money in the Super Bowl comes from the popularity of props.

Avello, who has been a Las Vegas-based oddsmaker since the 1980s, recalls the days of Vegas opening odds on William “The Refrigerator” Perry to score a touchdown in the 1986 Super Bowl.

Those odds opened at 20/1 and closed at 2/1 prior to the Big Game, which they won 46-10 against the Patriots, and Perry did indeed score a touchdown.


Betting on the NFL?


“That refrigerator Perry prop goes way back to over 25 years ago, and we did that in Vegas,” Avello said. “The bets we had to put up all had to be played out on the field. We couldn’t put up the color of the Gatorade.”

DraftKings adds that they are pricing Gatorade props, but they are state-specific.

“At DraftKings, we do the weird props. For the most part, we tend to see the action of what goes on on the field. We’ve got them all. The jersey number of the player to score the first touchdown: Over/under 10.5.”

DraftKings adds that it is offering a range of promotional tools to boost interest in the Big Game, including giving away $9 million in bonus bets on the night of the game. 

Why Trust New York Post Betting

Erich Richter is a brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt but he has a black belt in MMA betting. During the football season he’s showcased massive profits at The Post in the player prop market the last two seasons. While constantly betting long shots, his return on investment is 30.15 percent since 2022.

Credit: Source link

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