It takes just one extraordinary play for a football game to go completely off the rails.
A fluky bounce, an 80-yard touchdown sprint, a fumble deep in your own territory — any NFL matchup can flip in the blink of an eye.
And yet, because of the two-week gap between Conference Championship weekend and the Super Bowl, the sports world spends an absurd amount of time trying to script exactly how Sunday’s game will unfold. By the time kickoff arrives, a consensus has formed, and fans settle in expecting the game to follow the plan.
It almost never does.
For bettors, that’s a crucial thing to remember. There’s rarely value in betting on what everyone already believes is the most likely outcome. In this case, the market points to a Seahawks win in a relatively low-scoring game.
But when you zag while everyone else zigs, you can build yourself a fun (and potentially lucrative) lottery ticket for the Big Game.
Perhaps the best recent example of this strategy would be in Super Bowl 2019 between the Los Angeles Rams and New England Patriots.
With an Over/Under of 55.5 points – one of the highest in Super Bowl history – that game was expected to be a shootout between a pair of prolific offenses. Instead, it was a dud — the Pats won, 13-3 — and anybody who built their betting card around that notion was ripping up tickets by halftime.
For the brave few who went hard against the grain, paydirt.
Betting on the NFL?
This year, the narrative seems to be built around defense. The oddsmakers are in agreement.
At the time of writing, the Over/Under for Super Bowl 2026 is 45.5 points. If it closes there, it would be the lowest total since 2016, when the bookies posted an Over/Under of 43.5 points for Panthers vs. Broncos, and the eighth-lowest total since 1990.
Seattle’s defense graded out as the No. 1 unit by DVOA in 2025. The Patriots were also a top-10 unit and have proven themselves to be a dogged unit with a couple of banner performances in the playoffs. Both quarterbacks still have questions to answer.
It’s no wonder that the market is preparing for an arm-wrestling match.
If you think that’s how this will play out, go for it. Lean into those unders across the board. I wish you the best of luck.
But if you’re like me and want to try and catch some low-risk, high-reward lightning in a bottle, let’s size up what a “Chaos Theory” long-shot ticket would look like. It may just make sense.
Super Bowl 2026 long-shot parlay
We’ll start with an alternate spread. Nobody likes betting on a blowout in the Super Bowl, but it happens. Heck, it happened last year. It’s also a good place to start when building a correlated same-game parlay, because you can easily pitch backwards from this starting point.
Seahawks to win by 20+ is +630 at FanDuel Sportsbook.
If it is going to be a rout for the Seahawks, that should coincide with a big day for Darnold. He’s 11/1 to rack up at least four passing touchdowns. Book it.
If Darnold is going to go off, that likely means that his favorite target, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, will be along for the ride. He has 6/1 odds to score twice. Now we’re getting somewhere.
If we’re expecting the Seahawks to run it up, that likely means that the Patriots will be playing catch-up, which means a lot of work for Drake Maye. He’s -110 to hit the 225-yard plateau.
With those four legs, all of which are somewhat correlated, we’re staring down a potential 149/1 payout.
This is a volatile ticket (please bet responsibly!), and more often than not, it’s going to lose. That’s beside the point. The main takeaway is the approach, a reminder that the Super Bowl is one of the best betting markets to fade the crowd.
It won’t hit every time, but when it does, it can hit big.
The Chaos Theory Parlay: Seahawks -19.5/Sam Darnold 4+ touchdowns/Jaxon Smith-Njigba 2+ touchdowns/Drake Maye Over 224.5 yards (149/1, FanDuel)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
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