Paris Saint-Germain’s reign atop the Champions League looked to be in serious jeopardy in the early stages of the first leg of their knockout round match against Monaco.
PSG was down, 2-0, just 18 minutes into the match at Stade Louis II last Tuesday, but they took over from there, scoring three straight (and having a fourth goal disallowed), as Monaco wilted under the relentless pressure from Les Parisiens.
The job is not yet done, as PSG now has to defend that 3-2 advantage in the second leg on Wednesday. A win or draw at home will be enough to push the defending champs into the Round of 16. FanDuel Sportsbook has tagged Paris Saint-Germain as -4500 to advance, and they’re -330 to do it with a victory.
PSG vs. Monaco odds, prediction
PSG put together one of the most impressive campaigns in the history of the sport in 2024-25. Les Parisiens won the league, their domestic cup, and the Champions League for the first time in their history. Luis Enrique’s side also made it to the final of the Club World Cup, but ran out of gas against Chelsea in the oppressive heat at MetLife Stadium.
Putting together that kind of season will always raise expectations to an impossible level for the next campaign, so it shouldn’t be a shock, nor a criticism, that PSG has been more vulnerable than they were a year ago. They may not be at the same standard, but Les Parisiens remain one of the best teams in the world.
One area that they’ve improved is on defense. Last season, PSG conceded about 1.1 expected goals per game in Ligue 1, and this season they’ve chopped that number down to 0.92.
They’ve been a little worse in the Champions League, but they’re playing a Ligue 1 team on Wednesday, so I’d be more comfortable leaning on the domestic numbers.
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The situation should also set up well for PSG to display its defensive prowess. Monaco loves to play high-event soccer, trading chances at both ends of the pitch, but Les Monégasques will know that one goal for PSG likely ends their Champions League dreams. A more pragmatic approach will be required, which should slow this match down to a crawl.
There are also a couple of market conditions that are allowing bettors to get a terrific price on bets correlated to a low-scoring match. The most obvious reason is that these two teams just combined for five goals last week. And the second is that punters tend to sway towards the over in second legs, especially when one team has to “go for it,” as Monaco does.
We’ll zag all that and take a hefty price on the Under 2.5.
The Play: Under 2.5 goals (+270, FanDuel)
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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
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