The betting menu this weekend is filled with top-25 matchups and absolutely teeming with College Football Playoff implications.
As such, I’ve decided to start my card with a marquee game before heading to the bottom of the board, where true value lies on most college football Saturdays.
FSU at Clemson
Florida State -2.5
The winner of this annual heavyweight matchup has won the ACC in nine of the past 10 seasons.
The stakes remain just as high in this one, with Clemson teetering on the edge of becoming a conference also-ran, and Florida State hoping to solidify itself as a national title contender.
The key in this game will be the Clemson offense, which remains a work in progress through three weeks.
Garrett Riley, who was highly sought after as an offensive coordinator, was brought in to give the Clemson offense a bite.
After a disastrous opener against Duke, however, I remain on the fence when it comes to sophomore quarterback Cade Klubnik.
As TCU’s offensive coordinator last season, Riley unlocked Max Duggan’s potential and consistently dialed up plays for the senior quarterback to stretch the defense.
Klubnik remains a check-down artist through three weeks, evidenced by his cautious 6.5 yards per attempt average.
That timid approach won’t fly against a Florida State defense that successfully applies pressure with and without blitzing.
The Seminoles sacked LSU’s Jayden Daniels four times in the opener and Clemson will certainly have a matchup problem on the edge in Jared Verse.
I foresee a bounce-back game for the Florida State offense, which seemed flummoxed by the weather (35 mph gusts) against Boston College.
Jordan Travis has shown he’s capable of elevating his game against elite competition and I foresee a performance similar to his masterpiece against LSU three weeks ago (95.1 QBR).
Liberty at FIU
FIU +10
Mike MacIntyre is a turnaround specialist, as evidenced by his phenomenal work at San Jose State and Colorado.
He won national coach of the year at Colorado in 2016, and now he’s up to his old tricks at FIU, having helped the Panthers improve their win total by three in his first season.
The Panthers are off to their first 3-1 start since 2017 with a feisty offense led by a lefty true freshman at quarterback.
Keyone Jenkins, whom MacIntyre flipped from Auburn, is a bit of a high-school legend in Miami.
Jenkins won three straight state titles as Miami Central’s starting quarterback and took home the Miami-Dade County Offensive Player of the Year last fall.
The crafty lefty wasted no time overtaking entrenched starter Grayson James, and has led FIU to three straight one-possession wins.
He has palpable chemistry with Kris Mitchell, who reeled in 18 receptions for 368 yards and four scores since Jenkins took over as FIU’s QB1.
Toss in MacIntyre’s 10-4 ATS record as a home ’dog as a G5 head coach, and I couldn’t pass up fading a Liberty defense that can’t stop the run at all (123rd in PPA on the ground).
Betting on College Football?
Colorado State at Middle Tennessee
Colorado State +130 on the moneyline
Even in defeat, the Rams looked like a bowl team to me against Colorado.
Now that CSU has put together an adequate offensive line, the Rams have serious upside offensively.
Redshirt freshman Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi threw for 367 yards and his receiving corps, including a Gronk-ish Dallin Holker, look borderline unstoppable.
If they can weather the first-half suspension of pass-rushing specialist Mohamed Kamara, they could win this game going away against a lowly Middle Tennessee team.
Don’t fall for the letdown, long-road-trip narrative — the Rams are the better team with a high-powered offense.
Credit: Source link
