A double supply chain whammy is coming for U.S. economy in early 2025

Uncertainty among U.S. shippers is escalating into 2025 with the expectation of new Trump tariffs and the possibility of a new ports strike that could begin in mid-January.

Supply chain and logistics executives told CNBC that shippers are now trying to game out the snafus that could be coming in the global supply chain and how much inventory to order. This comes against a consumer backdrop that remains strong but is subject to macroeconomic risks, and an early start to Lunar New Year, a holiday period in Asia during which manufacturing operations halt for as long as a month.

In an advisory to clients, Honour Lane Shipping said it did not expect a volume spike in November because it took two to three weeks for production cycles to adjust, but front-loading may start in the first half of December, it wrote. It added the implementation of new tariffs could be delayed, though, and push back the frontloading to a later date during the first half of 2025.

The earliest that new tariffs could be in effect is in late February or early March, according to an alert from C.H. Robinson to clients. “With continued port labor uncertainty and the potential for increased tariffs in Q1, shippers should anticipate a strategic pull-forward of inventory out of Asia, which would impact both international and certain domestic freight markets (e.g., Southern California),” it wrote.

But shippers must now decide which coast to send freight to given exposure to a possible strike by the International Longshoremen’s Association at ports from New England to Texas that could begin in mid-January. Travel time for ocean freight from China to the East Coast and Gulf Coast ports is 40 to 55 days. The negotiation deadline between the United States Maritime Alliance and the ILA is Jan. 15. Last week, USMX announced the ILA had walked away from negotiations after an impasse over automation issues.

“Given the short duration of the extended deadline and the contestation of the automation issue, it is most likely that this will play out again in January,” said Corey Rhodes, CEO of Everstream Analytics. “The question then becomes how long the USMX will hold out on conceding to ILA’s demands this time around.” 

Rhodes said the strategies employed by shippers will differ based on the inventory management needs. Everstream clients include Whirlpool, AB InBev, and Danone. He added that making these types of decisions has become part of the typical uncertainty that the supply chain needs to be prepared to face.

“I was running a high-tech manufacturing operation before I took this job and we did manufacturing through China,” Rhodes said. “We wanted to hold as little inventory as possible on our books, but needed access to it on short notice and we were dependent on sub-components that were sourced from other countries. Managing that complexity was kind of the name of the game.”

Mike Short, president of global forwarding at C.H. Robinson, told CNBC that the logistics firm is seeing a variety of inquiries about front-loading freight, but it might not be feasible if suppliers can’t ramp up production.

“For those who can and want to front-load, the reasons are split among the pending second U.S. port strike in mid-January, the Lunar New Year starting on January 29, and potential tariff changes,” said Short. “Others are simply trying to figure out the timing — one customer asked about the last day their freight could leave Asia and arrive in the U.S. before the new tariffs potentially take effect.”

The congestion that followed the three-day ILA strike in October took weeks to clear out. According to Everstream Analytics, there were 54 container ships waiting outside ports on Oct. 4 when the strike ended, compared with five vessels before the strike started.

“Almost three weeks post-strike, we saw that the backlog was clearing at a slower pace than anticipated and not evenly across all affected ports,” Rhodes said. “While some ports that saw significant congestion after the three-day strike have already worked through the backlog, like New York and Houston, others are still experiencing congestion, especially Savannah.”

Rhodes said companies with four to six weeks of inventory are at risk of another disruption to supply if a new strike were to last for that length of time.

“Navigating the uncertainties is more than using stockpiling inventory,” he said, adding that the cost of warehousing and expediting freight are critical operational costs that need to be considered.

Everstream data is showing inventories building within organizations with the means to stock up in anticipation of potential disruptions.

“It can be revealing to see how much inventory a company has on their books,” Rhodes said. However, he added the picture can be incomplete with some companies not taking ownership of the freight immediately and the bill of lading listing another shipping or logistics company as the freight’s consignee.

Short said while China gets the most attention in trade war discussions, the global supply chain and U.S. shipper reliance on other countries has expanded vastly over the past 20 years, with the total value of goods imported into the U.S. increasing by 153%.

“President-elect Trump has indicated that his supply-chain-related policy agenda will center around ‘de-risking’ from China and other foreign manufacturing centers, along with rolling back or eliminating renewable-energy mandates,” said Short. “This approach would lead to higher tariffs for all imported goods and potentially significantly higher tariffs from China.”

Trump’s planned tariff increases on Chinese imports are expected to range between 60% and 100%, with 10% to 20% on all other imports. U.S. retail leaders are starting to signal that the duties will raise prices for consumers and slow spending, with Walmart CFO John David Rainey telling CNBC on Tuesday that the retailer could have to raise prices on some items if Trump’s proposed tariffs take effect.

Alix Partners advised clients in a recent note to expect both international and domestic freight rates to spike given an increase in volume. Ocean container rates, for example, rose more than 70% in 2018 after Trump increased tariffs on Chinese imports.

But that pricing trend may only be short-term, and the long-term outlook “less optimistic,” it wrote. “Trump’s high tariffs discourage imports, slowing shipment volumes and subsequently, shipping rates,” the report said.

S&P Global Market Intelligence said Trump’s economic and international policies could bring another round of restructuring to global supply chains.

The U.S. trade deficit with mainland China stood at $287 billion in the 12-month period through Sept. 30, 2024, according to an S&P Global report. That’s down by 18.7% since 2021 but is still the largest individual deficit with any country. S&P Global uses 2021 as a comparison point since that was when President Joe Biden took office and it also removes any data distortions involving Covid factory closures.

There has been a rise in Chinese manufacturing moving to Mexico under terms of the Trump-negotiated USMCA trade deal, a legal back door to entering the U.S. without paying tariffs, which Trump is expected to take a new look at in his second term. More companies have also set up shop in countries such as South Korea, Vietnam and Malaysia, which could also face tariff actions. Through September, Vietnam’s trade deficit with the U.S. was up 30.6% in the previous 12 months compared with the 2021 level.

According to Chinese customs data, mainland China’s trade surplus with Vietnam increased by 25.1% in the 12-month period through September, compared with the 2021 level. According to S&P Global Market Intelligence, China’s trade surplus with Vietnam rose to $11 billion, versus a U.S. trade deficit with Vietnam at $28 billion. S&P Global warns of increased trade risks related to Vietnam given its relationship to China.