ALCS odds, picks, best bets

Game 3 of the ALCS was an instant classic which breathed new life into an ALCS that looked a little dull heading to Cleveland with the Yankees leading, 2-0.

The Yankees had a 99% win probability prior to Jhonkensy Noel’s pinch-hit two-run homer in the bottom of the ninth inning, which came after Emmanuel Clase blew a two-run lead in the top of the eighth.

Game 4 is priced closely in the betting markets as a pair of starters who have not pitched in several weeks will make their first postseason starts, as Luis Gil of the Yankees is set to take on Gavin Williams.

Yankees vs. Guardians ALCS Game 4 odds

After a brilliant start to the campaign, Gil’s form tailed off down the stretch throughout August and September. Gil’s last start came versus Pittsburgh on Sept. 28, and he was lit up for six earned runs across five innings.

In his last 10 starts, Gil has posted a 4.20 ERA, and holds a fairly unconvincing underlying profile. He pitched to an xFIP of 4.90 while being hard hit 40% of the time and holds a K-BB% of 11.5.

Gil features high quality stuff, but has consistently struggled with command throughout his career. A cold night versus a highly disciplined Guardians offense won’t make it easy if Gil struggles with command early. Gil threw strikes just 61% of the time against right-handed batters this season, which is the second-lowest mark of any starter to throw 60 or more innings.

While Gil coming off of a long layoff does make this feel matchup feel more volatile, there is an argument to be made that some time to reset might not be the worst thing for the 26 year-old righty.

The Yankees used six relievers in Thursday’s matchup and Luke Weaver, Clay Holmes and Tim Hill have all pitched in all three games this series.

Aaron Boone could opt to use Marcus Stroman in long relief if Gil can’t work deep into this game, but given Stroman’s 5.98 second-half ERA, that likely isn’t Boone’s preferred plan.

Williams meanwhile has not pitched since Sept. 22 in St. Louis.

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Similar to Gil, Williams also featured drastically worse numbers in the second half after a strong start to the season. Throughout his final ten starts Williams pitched to an ERA of 5.55 in 47 innings of work. He held a 4.27 xFIP in that span and allowed a batting average of .246.

The Yankees lineup was the best in the league against right-handed pitching this season with a wRC+ of 120 and an OPS of .777. They hit fastballs very well (68.5 wFastball runs above average), which could force Williams to adjust his pitch mix in this matchup to find success.

Neither of these teams offensive results have worsened versus higher quality arms this postseason. The Yankees hold a league leading 115 wRC+ this postseason. They have posted a league-best 0.83 K/BB ratio, and league leading 37.9% hard-hit rate in that span. Cleveland’s offense has hit to a wRC+ of 94 in that span, which ranks tied for fourth and is comparable to their second half results.

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Chris Segal will be the plate umpire in this matchup and has been hitter-friendly historically. Totals are 141-120-10 (O/U) when Segal is the umpire, for a +4.3% ROI.

Both of Friday’s starters struggled down the stretch, and have concerns in this specific matchup. Both bullpens look less convincing than usual too, as the Guardians’ typically untouchable high-leverage arms haven’t been dominant this Postseason, while the Yankees’ top arms may not be available.

This looks like a good spot to back the game to go over 7.5 runs at -130 or better.

BEST BET: Over 7.5 (-112, FanDuel)

Why Trust New York Post Betting

Nicholas Martin handicaps the NHL, MLB and NFL for the New York Post. He strives to include relevant game notes in articles to help bettors come to their own conclusions, but is also up 180 units himself on verified picks in a sports betting app. You can find Nick on X @nickm_hockey.