This is no scoop: We stink at Hall of Fame voting.
It’s not just because one numbskull voter omitted Derek Jeter from his ballot, although that was especially dumb.
The real issues are bigger than that, and they aren’t going away.
We — the baseball writers — still haven’t a clue how to treat steroid guys. How else to explain why David Ortiz, Sammy Sosa and Gary Sheffield, who are all probably Hall worthy based on their on-field accomplishments but credibly linked to steroids, and their wildly divergent voting results?
Ortiz is in, Sheffield is trending positively and has an outside chance to make it on his final ballot when the results are announced next month — he’s currently above the needed 75 percent threshold in very early voting, according to @NotMrTibbs — while comparable steroid-linked players like Sosa, who had three years with 60-plus homers and 609 for his career, got only a small smattering of support?
What’s more, how to explain how even better, much more accomplished PED players like Manny Ramirez and even all-time greats also linked to steroids such as Alex Rodriguez (and Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens before that) are dead in the water while Sheffield continues to progress?
The other issue is this: We are weak.
We are way too easily swayed by what we see from “experts” on social media, causing a ridiculous number of vote switches and an even more ridiculous number of many near-great players going from 10 percent in their first year on the ballot to election.
Vote switches are allowed, but why would two-thirds of the electorate come to the very same conclusion without influence? It’s groupthink (or “groupfear” as Post colleague Joel Sherman calls it) gone wild. Hot candidates like Billy Wagner go from barely enough votes to remain on the ballot (10.5 percent in his first year, 11.1 percent as recently as 2018) to almost certain coronation while more impactful players like Mark Buehrle (59 WAR) languish.
Without further ado, here’s how I see this year’s ballot.
My yes votes
1. Adrian Beltre: With 3,166 hits, 477 home runs and impeccable defense, the one no-brainer on the ballot
2. Carlos Beltran: Postseason performance (1.021 OPS in 65 games) puts him over the top. I omitted him last year for the Astros cheating scandal and feel a little guilty about it.
3. Andruw Jones: One of the greatest defensive center fielders ever (10 straight Gold Gloves) also had 434 home runs.
4. Joe Mauer: Before the concussions, he was the best catcher in the game who happened to win three of the five batting titles ever won by catchers.
5. Chase Utley: Great defense, clutch hitting supersedes the lowish lifetime hit total (1,885) for a Hall of Famer. Sorry, Mets fans.
6. Jimmy Rollins: Great defense and real impact (Phillies all-time hit leader).
Very near misses
7. Todd Helton: Nothing against overheated Coors Field, but the bulk numbers aren’t quite there for a first baseman in that atmosphere.
8. Matt Holliday: We shouldn’t forget that in addition to being a power hitter, he hit .299 lifetime.
9. David Wright: Was on a Hall of Fame path before the back injury curtailed a fabulous career.
10. Torii Hunter: Great defense should mean something. Very close.
11. Mark Buehrle: Incredible consistency (14 straight years with 200 IP, 15 straight with double-digit wins) and major highlights (a no-hitter and a perfect game) mean he’s closer than you think. Or should be.
12. Omar Vizquel: One of the best defensive shortstops ever but I can’t quite get past the 82 OPS-plus.
13. Billy Wagner: Spectacular regular-season dominance but postseason failures and a little short on bulk numbers. Internet darling for gaudy strikeout rate (11.9 K/9) and WHIP (0.998), but who had greater impact on his team: Wagner or Buehrle?
14. Bobby Abreu: A case can be made if you look at the numbers a certain way. It won’t be made here.
Great but not great enough
15. Jose Bautista: He’ll be recalled for one moment but he was truly great in Toronto.
16. Adrian Gonzalez: A force, even in early Petco.
17. Francisco Rodriguez: He burst onto the scene with the Angels’ lone title and put together a very nice career.
18. James Shields: That rare consistent innings-eater.
19. Jose Reyes: Had some great years in Queens.
20. Victor Martinez: A terrific hitter who could also catch.
21. Brandon Phillips: Versatile and nice player.
Great PED cases
22. Alex Rodriguez: One of the greatest players ever but just couldn’t help himself.
23. Manny Ramirez: Prodigy from Upper Manhattan really didn’t have to do it.
24. Gary Sheffield: Made the Mitchell Report for his Balco involvement (including the cash he sent Victor Conte — people, look at the evidence!), but somehow after starting with a 11.7 percent in Year 1, a majority of voters are now giving him a pass even better players aren’t getting.
25. Andy Pettitte: His postseason numbers just might have gotten him there (at least for me).
26. Bartolo Colon: Big Sexy had big moments and a very nice career. Not quite there, even without steroid brush. But still a lot of fun.
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