Arguably the best card top to bottom in the UFC this year… Welcome to UFC 320.
Barring any pullouts or weight-cut misses, we have 14 fights on deck this weekend, with all of the prelims on ESPN+ beginning at 6 p.m. ET.
Just five of the 14 fights are expected to end inside the distance for this card.
UFC 320 predictions
Magomed Ankalaev vs. Alex Pereira
A heavy favorite in the second go-around between these two, Magomed Ankalaev won a close decision last time he met Alex Pereira.
Ankalaev won striking exchanges with arguably the best kickboxer in the world thanks to heavy forward pressure and the threat of a takedown.
Although Pereira isn’t exactly a strong grappler– he began training complete MMA within the last 10 years – he was able to stop 11 takedown attempts from Ankalaev.
If he can do that again, you’d expect him to win the striking in this matchup.
I have a few concerns, though. Pereira was able to stop the takedowns, but how realistic is that to happen again in this fight?
I suspect Ankalaev gets better in the second fight.
Now that he’s the champion, he should be even more motivated to use his usual domination tactics on the ground.
There is danger involved in charging in for a takedown against an talented striker like Pereira, who has won by flying knee knockout in the past.
Betting value-wise, there’s basically none on Ankalaev’s moneyline as a -290 favorite. You could opt to poke Pereira by knockout at +300, but he’s been through too many wars for him to get my money.
I’ll target an odd-ball prop – Ankalaev by submission is 16/1.
He has never won by submission in the UFC, but that doesn’t mean he doesn’t know how to do it. Just a few months ago, Merab Dvalishvili had won by submission after never doing so in his UFC career either.
Ankalaev can snatch someone’s neck for a rear-naked choke, and given the fact that Pereira isn’t exactly a stud on the mat, it’s worth a small bet.
THE PLAY: Ankalaev by submission (16/1, BetRivers)
Merab Dvalishvili vs. Cory Sandhagen
The returning bantamweight champion, Dvalishvili, has ripped off an obscene 13 straight wins in the UFC while showcasing dominant grappling and lately, improved striking.
Dvalishvili has promised to showcase his striking in this fight, which could be a little concerning if you’re looking to back the -400 favorite.
Cory Sandhagen would, in theory, profile as having the higher finishing upside thanks to his strong submissions and front headlock game. But any fighter that’s willing to accept a bad position for a low-percentage submission isn’t where my bet is going.
Dvalishvili averages an impressive 5.84 takedowns per 15 minutes, and even though he’s saying he will strike, I think he falls back on takedowns whenever he wants.
Target Dvalishvili to win by decision, even though it is the obvious bet according to sportsbooks. I just view it as a small discount on his moneyline.
THE PLAY: Merab Dvalishvili by decision (-182, Fanatics Sportsbook)
UFC 320 full card picks
Magomed Ankalaev vs. Alex Pereira: Ankalaev by submission (16/1, BetRivers)
Merab Dvalishvili vs. Cory Sandhagen: Merab Dvalishvili by decision (-182, Fanatics Sportsbook)
Jiri Prochazka vs. Khalil Rountree Jr: Fight goes the distance (+240, BetMGM)
Josh Emmett vs. Youssef Zalal: Emmett by KO (+800, BetMGM)
Abus Magomedov vs. Joe Pyfer: Magomedov by decision (+590, Fanatics)
Edmen Shahbazyan vs.Andre Muniz: Shahbazyan by decision (+650, DraftKings)
Chris Gutierrez vs. Farid Basharat: Pass
Daniel Santos vs. JooSang Yoo: JooSang Yoo ML (+135, ESPN Bet)
Macy Chiasson vs. Yana Santos: Chiasson by decision (+128, Fanatics)
Patchy Mix vs. Jakub Wiklacz: Mix by submission (+175, Fanatics)
Punahele Soriano vs. Nikolay Veretennikov: Soriano by KO/TKO (+135, bet365)
Ramiz Brahimaj vs. Austin Vanderford: Vanderford inside the distance (+185, FanDuel)
Veronica Hardy vs. Brogan Walker: Fight goes the distance (-340, Fanatics Sportsbook)
Ateba Gautier vs. Tre’ston Vines: Pass
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Erich Richter is a brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt but he has a black belt in MMA betting. During the football season he’s showcased massive profits at The Post in the player prop market the last two seasons. While constantly betting long shots, his return on investment is 30.15 percent since 2022.
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