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Louisville vs. NC State pick
The Cardinals run the ball at the 16th-highest rate in the country, and how could you not feed Jawhar Jordan? He’s averaging a staggering 9.6 yards per carry while also finding paydirt six times in four games.
Jordan and the Cardinals should continue to find success on the ground in this matchup. The big boys up front will have the edge in Line Yards, and the Wolfpack haven’t been all that great against the run, ranking 82nd in yards per carry allowed.
However, NC State can’t just load the box because the run game has done a great job of setting up the Louisville passing game this season. Jack Plummer is third in the country in yards per pass, averaging over 11 yards per completion.
The Wolfpack are 81st in coverage rating and rank 97th in yards per pass allowed, so the Cardinals are in line for offensive success, no matter what scheme they deploy in this matchup.
When you look at the NC State offense, you have to key in on Armstrong. I highlighted the connection he has with his offensive coordinator, but we haven’t seen a renaissance from Armstrong thus far.
He’s 118th in completion percentage and 110th in yards per pass. While he’ll have a solid matchup in front of him against the Louisville secondary, it remains to be seen if he can capitalize.
The biggest issue is NC State’s offensive line. The unit is 45th in pass blocking and 69th in run blocking, per PFF. This has caused Armstrong to scramble on many dropbacks, and it has led to the Wolfpack averaging just 3.9 yards per carry on the ground.
While the Cardinals’ defensive line hasn’t generated much pressure on the quarterback, it’ll have the Line Yards advantage, so NC State needs Armstrong to get going if it wants to hang around in this one.
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