Perhaps the Broncos had a champagne party in their heads a bit too soon.
Denver scored three touchdowns in their first three drives Thursday against the Chargers, who owned the league’s No. 9 defense in terms of DVOA (Defense-adjusted value over average) entering the game.
Things fell apart from there as their offense floundered the rest of the game, with Denver scoring just six points and punting on five of their remaining seven drives in an eventual 34-27 loss.
The Broncos averaged just 3.4 yards per play in that span.
Quarterback Bo Nix told reporters he was very frustrated with the result, as the Chargers gained the critical tiebreaker by sweeping the season series.
Denver is fighting for a playoff spot as the No. 7 seed in the AFC.
“Just frustrated,” Nix said. “The difference in our two games with them has been seven points and just got to find a way to get the ball in the end zone one more time. That’s the frustrating part, the margin of error is one touchdown.”
Perhaps another reason for frustration isn’t just the lack of touchdowns, but the trust that head coach Sean Payton has in his rookie quarterback.
After getting the ball at their own 45-yard line while trailing, 27-24, with five minutes remaining, Nix took a sack to make it second-and-20.
Rather than throw the ball in a clear passing situation, Nix handed the ball off to Audric Estime, who gained seven yards.
On third-and-13, Nix gained seven yards on a throw to Lucas Krull before Payton decided to punt on fourth-and-6 from midfield.
Ben Baldwin, an analytical guru who projects the right decisions for each fourth down, projected that the most dubious decision of the game was on that fourth down play where the Broncos elected to pun, since their win probability would have increased by 5.2 percent if they had gone for it.
If they converted, they would have had a 44 percent chance at winning, per Baldwin.
Instead they gave up a six-play, 90-yard touchdown drive that put the Chargers up by 10 points and the game essentially out of reach.
The Broncos need to win just one more game to clinch a playoff spot by their own accord, though they could qualify by receiving help from other teams.
On their tail are three 6-8 teams in the Colts, Dolphins and Bengals. Denver owns the tiebreaker over the Colts and plays Cincinnati next week in a crucial matchup.
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