California ports see freight wave as ships try to beat China tariffs

A new wave of ocean freight from China is beginning to arrive at the Port of Los Angeles and Long Beach, an increased flow of shipping containers aiming to beat potential tariff increases. President Trump imposed a deadline of August 12 for the U.S. and China to agree to a trade deal.

In recent days, the vessel tracking service managed by the Marine Exchange of Southern California and Coast Guard showed an uptick in ship arrivals: Friday (64), Saturday (68), and Sunday (64).

“This is a pretty solid forecast of an increase in container ship arrivals in the next one to two weeks,” said Captain J. Kipling (Kip) Louttit, executive director of MX SoCal. He said it is the highest number of container ships on the way to the nation’s busiest ports since January 2025 (previous highs were in July and September 2024).

The forecast for the coming weeks encompasses the average of container ships coming from the far reaches of Asia that are 16 days out, those coming from Oakland and San Diego which are one day out, and others on the way from the Panama Canal, South and Central America, Mexico, Hawaii, and Alaska, with transit times in between.

The increase in containers was expected, and officials have stopped short of describing it as a “surge.” There is no expectation of sustained high levels — ocean freight booking orders fell after a couple of weeks of increased orders. There is no expectation of congestion at the West Coast ports, either, due to recent softness in container traffic. The trade war has led many U.S. importers to place a pause on orders, and vessels arriving into the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach before the new wave have not been full.

The terminals at the Port of Long Beach are operating at about 60 percent of capacity. Mario Cordero, CEO of the Port of Long Beach, tells CNBC the port is well prepared to handle the expected uptick in vessel traffic over the next several weeks and beyond.

Canceled sailings at Long Beach — many shippers cancelled planned freight vessel voyages earlier this year during the initial stages of Trump’s trade war — are trending down, from an expected 18 in June to only 4 for July and August combined, Cordero said.

“We’ve been coordinating closely with terminal operators, labor, and our other partners to ensure they have what they need as we look forward to increased cargo flow. We welcome the additional cargo and look forward to a resolution of the trade policy issues that have led to so much uncertainty for shippers,” he added.

The terminals at the Port of Los Angeles are operating at 70% of capacity. Gene Seroka, executive director for the Port of Los Angeles, noted in its monthly container update that the port would see some signs of peak season orders in the month of July arrivals. But he added, “retailers are not telling me that they’re boosting inventory levels to have wide selections on products beginning that Thanksgiving week and running to the end of the year. So I’m not seeing that either.”

The terminals at the Port of Los Angeles are operating at less than 30% of the cargo on the docks today than at the peak during Covid. “We’ve got plenty of room to manage the cargo,” Seroka said in the update.

Vessels now arriving are anticipated to be full. This increase in containers will be a boost for trucking, railroads and warehouse companies who get paid by the freight load.

Seroka told CNBC that the uptick in cargo in recent weeks compared to May “has put more people back to work on our docks.”

He added that the cargo flow is still below normal for the month of June, and “there are looming trade negotiation deadlines in July and August that will impact volume forecasts for the remainder of the year.”