The 2025 Belmont Stakes may be about two horses, but Friday’s headliner at Saratoga, the Grade 1 Acorn Stakes, is about one.
No. 2 Good Cheer, the winner of the 2025 Kentucky Oaks, is 7-for-7 in her career, and all seven of her wins have come by at least two lengths. A win on Friday afternoon would put her in lofty company, and the oddsmakers believe that it’s more likely than not that she comes through.
Good Cheer was installed as a hefty 1-2 favorite on the morning line, putting her a couple of tiers above the rest of this seven-horse field.
You can expect a ton of horizontal wagers on Friday to have Good Cheer singled to close their ticket, and you will see plenty of punters tie her to Journalism or Sovereignty in the Acorn/Belmont Stakes Double.
That presents the classic dilemma for handicappers: Do you just join the masses and throw Good Cheer in all of your horizontal wagers and try to find value other ways, or do you try to take her on, knowing that you’re going to get a good price on whoever you think has the best chance of handing Brad Cox’s runner her first defeat?
What’s so interesting about Good Cheer and her dominance is that she’s not putting up monster numbers.
If you’re someone who is using speed figures in your handicapping homework, you’ll be left a little perplexed because this horse is doing nothing wrong, yet hasn’t had that eye-popping number yet.
That may sound like a knock, but it’s really a testament to just how good this horse has been. She’s shown up to each race and has been the best runner on the track seven times out of seven.
To beat a horse like Good Cheer, you’ll need two things to happen. One, she needs to be off her game, and two, you need the race to break your way.
But even for most horses in this field, that likely won’t be enough.
There are a couple of entrants that do have a chance to pull the upset, should things follow their preferred script.
2025 Acorn Stakes long shots
No. 3 La Cara (10-1)
La Cara set a lively pace in the Kentucky Oaks, but Mark Casse’s contender faded down the stretch and ultimately had to settle for ninth, miles behind Good Cheer.
Sounds ominous, right?
Well, sure. But, there is some context needed for that result.
Mother Nature was up to no good during Kentucky Derby Weekend, and that seemed to play a factor in how La Cara performed. This doesn’t seem to be a horse who wants to run in muddy conditions.
There is some precipitation in the forecast for Saratoga this weekend, but if there are clear skies, this horse has the speed figures you’d need to get out in front and stay there.
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No. 5 Bless the Broken (10-1)
In a lot of ways, what Bless the Broken does on Friday depends on La Cara.
If the No. 3 horse sets a blistering pace, like she did at the Kentucky Oaks, Bless the Broken has every chance to do exactly what she did at Churchill Downs that day.
She sat back and waited for the opportunity to kick it into high gear, passing plenty of tiring horses down the stretch.
Given the pace setup in this field, there is a decent chance that we saw that race script again on Friday.
La Cara, No. 4 Shred the Gnar, No. 6 Look Forward, and No. 1 Scottish Lassie all could vie for the front, turning the first four furlongs into a scrum, which would hopefully tucker them out.
The bad news for Bless the Broken is that it will also play right into Good Cheer’s hands, but maybe you get her on an off day, and this long shot can fire.
At the very least, she’s one to use in exotics on Friday.
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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
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