Before Wimbledon started, it felt inevitable that Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz would renew acquaintances in the final.
The two best players in the world had just played an epic, five-set thriller in the final at the French Open, and there were no real concerns about their fitness ahead of the fortnight at the All England Club.
But at different times during the tournament, it looked like the rematch between Alcaraz and Sinner was in doubt.
While Sinner was plowing through the early rounds, Alcaraz was taken to five sets by Fabio Fognini in his first match and he was put under some pressure by Jan-Lennard Struff in the Round of 32 too.
Alcaraz, as he is wont to do, would pass these tests and eventually find his footing, dispatching Andrey Rublev, Cam Norrie and Taylor Fritz without much fuss to reach the final.
While Alcaraz found his form in the Round of 16, Sinner was put under immense pressure by Grigor Dimitrov. The Bulgarian took the first two sets off the Italian, who was suffering from an apparent elbow injury after a fall in the early stages of the match.
Sinner caught the ultimate break when Dimitrov injured himself and was forced to tap out of the match despite being up two sets to none.
The World No. 1 put any doubts about his elbow to rest with back-to-back whitewashes against Ben Shelton and Novak Djokovic to set up a rematch with Alcaraz on Sunday.
With no concerns about their form or health, tennis fans should be in for a treat Sunday.
Oddsmakers agree, as the market opened as a virtual pick’em. The line has since moved toward Alcaraz, but as far as tennis matches go this is projected pretty close to a coin flip.
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On the surface, that line makes a lot of sense. These are the two best players in the world, and they just played a five-setter one month ago that could have gone either way.
Alcaraz won that match, his fifth in a row against Sinner to run the head-to-head to 8-4 in his favor, and he’s the two-time defending champion at Wimbledon, so it’s logical that the early money is pouring in on the Spaniard.
But it’s not just the recent results that make Alcaraz worth a bet as the favorite Sunday. He also has more paths to success than Sinner.
Wimbledon: Sinner vs. Alcaraz odds, pick
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| Jannik Sinner | -111 |
| Carlos Alcaraz | -108 |
While Sinner is unmatched in his ability to get out in front of his opponents and stay there, he is going up against an immovable object in this match. It’s incredibly difficult to put Alcaraz away, a lesson that Sinner learned again last month in France.
So while Sinner’s path to success is dependent on sprinting ahead of Alcaraz, the latter will feel like he’s never out of the match and can afford to be patient against the World No. 1.
Handicapping a match like this is more of an art than a science. You need to map out the contest and decide who has more paths to victory. Not only does Alcaraz tick that box, but he’s also riding a 24-match winning streak overall and is 19-for-19 at Wimbledon over the last three years.
Sinner may be the World No. 1, but Alcaraz is the king of Wimbledon.
The Play: Carlos Alcaraz (-108, FanDuel)
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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
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