This was the offseason in which the Yankees just had to sign Cody Bellinger, and once he was off the board, either Jordan Montgomery or Blake Snell.
The Yankees never blinked on any of this, however — even after Gerrit Cole incurred a nerve injury in his elbow in spring, though they made a late effort on Montgomery.
As it turns out — at least to date — the Yankees might have executed the best two position player trades of the offseason — certainly for lefty-hitting outfielders in obtaining Juan Soto and Alex Verdugo, negating any remorse on the Bellinger front. And they might have just made the best personnel decision overall by deciding to try Luis Gil in the Cole slot since Gil actually is in the conversation to succeed Cole as both the AL All-Star starting pitcher and AL Cy Young.
It is part of the brew of how the Yankees entered the weekend with the AL’s best record. It also contributed to why Bellinger, Montgomery and Snell fell far short of the contract length/dollars for which they were striving. They were part of the Scott Boras Four (along with Matt Chapman) whose free agency lingered. All four ultimately signed shorter-term multi-year contracts that gave them high 2024 salaries and the chance to opt out at least after this season and try again in free agency.
It is not that the player option is new. But it was voluminous this offseason, with 14 free agents signing deals that would allow them to decide their fate — stay or go back into the market — after this year.
Of those 14, just one appears certain to stay where he is. Lucas Giolito needed Tommy John surgery in spring training after signing a two-year, $38.5 million pact with the Red Sox. He will probably need to keep rehabbing into next season, so he likely would trigger his $19 million 2025 option to stay with Boston.
As part of an overall successful offseason that has allowed the Royals to vault to surprising contention, they have failures so far with outfielder Hunter Renfroe (60 OPS-plus) and reliever Chris Stratton (6.00 ERA) — who if the season ended today would probably trigger their 2025 player options for $7.5 million (rather than a $1 million buyout) and $4.5 million ($500,000 buyout), respectively. Of course, the season does not end today. Injury or a huge movement in performance, good or bad, will impact decisions. This is just a snapshot of these deals one-third through the season.
Royals starter Michael Wacha ($16 million in 2025), Reds swingman Nick Martinez ($12 million) and Reds reliever Emilio Pagan ($8 million or a $250,000 buyout) all might have trouble getting that dollar figure for next year, but perhaps can opt out and do multiple years for more total money. Padres reliever Wandy Peralta has player options totaling $13.15 million from 2025-27.
Clayton Kershaw has triggers that can raise the value of a 2025 option upward from $5 million if he can make it back from shoulder surgery. The Dodgers legend has been operating on a year-by-year basis for a while deciding between the Dodgers, returning home to the Rangers or retiring.
The most interesting cases are:
1. Bellinger has player options with the Cubs for $27.5 million ($2.5 million buyout) after this season or $25 million for 2026 ($5 million buyout). He is not the 2018 MVP Bellinger, but he is now in his second straight season of demonstrating he is not the player the Dodgers non-tendered after 2022. He limits strikeouts and hits brilliantly with two strikes. But what concerned the industry — not hitting the ball consistently hard — remains, and his defense and baserunning have so far been down.
Bellinger turns 29 next month. Is he a better overall player than Verdugo, who turned 28 two weeks ago and also is a free agent after the season? Both made their debut as Dodgers in 2017. Bellinger’s highs are better, but Verdugo is at minimum in his league now.
2. Snell has a $30 million player option with $15 million deferred. The lefty goes into Sunday’s start against the Yankees with a 10.42 ERA, the third-worst Baseball Reference Wins Above Replacement among pitchers and bemoaning the impact of missing spring training. The industry would not chase him at $200 million-plus last offseason off his second Cy Young for multiple reasons, including high walk totals and concerns how adaptable he would be into his 30s as elite stuff diminished.
Can Snell assemble anything close to the run he had last year (1.20 ERA in his final 23 starts) to push himself potentially to a $100 million-plus pitcher?
3. Chapman has player options totaling $35 million the next two years, as the Giants waited out the market to land both him and Snell. He should be able to beat that total. Chapman is consistently a .230-ish hitter with a little less power than desired, but a superb glove (leads third basemen in Defensive Runs Saved). He does not turn 32 until next year.
4. Montgomery’s option vests between $20 million-$25 million depending on how many starts he makes for Arizona this season. What kept him from getting the high-end deal in the offseason remains — he is not a big swing-and-miss pitcher (career-low 14.4 strikeout percentage through his eighth start, which was a dud at Citi Field that brought his ERA to 5.48). But marketed as a high-end No. 3 who has proven he can handle New York and the postseason, a healthy Montgomery should be able to top the four years at $80 million that Eduardo Rodriguez signed for with Arizona. Montgomery switched from Boras to the Wasserman Media Group
5. Sean Manaea has a $13.5 million option, and that should be easily exceeded since, at this point, he might be the Mets’ All-Star representative. The lefty, also repped by Boras, had allowed two or fewer runs in eight of 10 starts and the Mets were 7-3 when he started and 16-30 when he didn’t.
6. Rhys Hoskins has an $18 million player option with a $4 million buyout. He came off the IL (hamstring) on Friday after missing three weeks and was still tied for the Brewers’ home run lead (nine). He was performing well after missing all of last season because of a torn ACL. Hoskins is a year-and-a-half older than Pete Alonso and doesn’t have his full power or durability. But his overall value to Alonso is close enough — especially with leadership added — that I wonder how many teams will try to sign Hoskins in the offseason for, say, two years rather than Alonso for five or more? Both are repped by Boras.
Credit: Source link
