One of the great sporting events on the calendar, the Championships at Wimbledon, gets underway Monday, and the men’s draw couldn’t be better poised for bettors.
Jannik Sinner (+160) is the favorite to win his first Wimbledon, but he’s got company at the very top of the board in defending champion Carlos Alcaraz (+175) and a healthy Novak Djokovic (+400).
Those three are in a class of their own, but the market has backed some other contenders including Hubert Hurkacz (11/1), Alexander Zverev (10/1), Jack Draper (16/1) and Alex de Minaur (20/1).
The overwhelming likelihood is that the winner comes from the very top of the odds, but there are a few sleepers who could outrun their odds, including a couple of big names that are flying under the radar.
2024 Wimbledon predictions
Daniil Medvedev (12/1, BetMGM)
By his own lofty standards, it’s been a quiet year for Daniil Medvedev. The 28-year-old Russian got out of the gates strong with a runner-up finish at the Australian Open and another one at Indian Wells, but he’s yet to lift a trophy this season and didn’t make too much noise during the clay swing, which has caused the market to overlook him and flock to trendier players like Jack Draper, Alex de Minaur and Tommy Paul.
It’s quite bizarre.
Even if Medvedev isn’t having his best year, he’s still ranked as the World No. 5 and is one year removed from a trip to the semifinal at Wimbledon, putting to rest the idea that his unique style of play would never translate to the grass surface at the All England Club.
Additionally, his mediocre performances on clay are nothing new. Medvedev always languishes during the middle part of the calendar before turning it up ahead of the homestretch. It’s what he does.
Medvedev does find himself in Jannik Sinner’s quarter, but the Italian’s section is pretty tough so there’s a non-zero chance he gets bounced before the quarters.
This is a terrific betting opportunity.
Andrey Rublev (50/1, DraftKings)
Like his compatriot Medvedev, Andrey Rublev is being overlooked by the betting market for a couple of reasons. The most obvious is that the 26-year-old has an 0-10 record in quarterfinals at Grand Slams (he’s 0-1 at Wimbledon).
Until Rublev gets over that hump, he will be doubted by bettors and pundits alike.
The other reason Rublev’s number has drifted is that he’s had an uncharacteristically inconsistent season. Known as one of the steadiest performers on the ATP Tour, Rublev has found things a little more difficult than usual of late and has only made it to one final throughout the season. He was also just unceremoniously bounced in the Round of 32 at Halle, the only grass-court tournament he’s played this season.
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But what can’t be understated here is that Rublev got an incredible draw. The only real danger in Rublev’s immediate section of the bracket is Lorenzo Musetti and his likeliest opponent in the quarterfinals is Stefanos Tsitsipas, who has his own demons at this tournament.
Rublev’s mediocre form may be worrying, but his first two opponents should put up very little resistance so, in theory, he should have time to find his level before the going gets tough.
Sometimes it’s best not to overthink things in betting and getting 50/1 on the World No. 6 in the easiest section of the draw is one of those times.
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