Taylor Swift wasn’t a household name immediately upon arriving on the music scene. She had a hit, then another, and another … until she became a global star.
Conversely, Robin Thicke became an instant sensation when “Blurred Lines” was released. Then his name has faded into the fog of memory, like many one-hit wonders.
Point being, true stardom often takes time to develop. Now, things can happen more quickly in football, and certainly that applies to fantasy football. So when Dolphins rookie De’Von Achane exploded Sunday for 208 yards on 19 carries with two touchdowns, and also had five catches for 34 yards and two more touchdowns, the first question is obvious: Is he a one-hit wonder? A “Blurred Lines” of fantasy? Or is he taking a football shortcut to Taylor Swift-type fantasy fame?
Well, this just in: Fantasy football doesn’t operate the same way the music industry does. So let’s bring the blurred line of this clunky analogy into focus.
Of course, you want to grab Achane off waivers if you can this week. Though he almost certainly won’t duplicate his Week 3 breakout, he still can provide a ceiling high enough to consider him a Flex start each week.
Just a Flex, you ask? Well, yeah, because there are other factors at play.
First, Sunday’s 70-20 Dolphins rout of the Broncos was historic because such an outburst happens so seldomly. The chances he exceeds 20 touches again is not as high as you might think. We don’t expect him to go back to just two touches (like his Week 2 debut), but expect less opportunity just based on normal gameflow.
Plus, he averaged 11.3 yards per carry Sunday. That won’t happen often. It also included a 67-yard scoring run. Big plays happen, and certain players make them more often, but even they don’t make them routinely.
Plus Achane is just 5-foot-8, 188 pounds. RBs of similar size often don’t have long-term durability if given too heavy a workload. This isn’t a judgment on Achane, but a fundamental fact of the game.
Plus, Jaylen Waddle didn’t play, raising reliance on the ground game. More directly, fellow RB Salvon Ahmed was out, as was Jeff Wilson. At some point, one or both likely will be active and involved in the backfield rotation.
Plus, even with those injuries, Achane is not the lone running back in that backfield. Raheem Mostert had an incredible day as well — 20 touches, 142 total yards and four touchdowns of his own. Mostert’s 45.2 PPR points didn’t quite keep up with Achane’s 51.3, but pretty sure fantasy managers were satisfied with either.
Betting on the NFL?
When you go looking for Achane on waivers, keep these things in mind. Thus, don’t bid upward of 50 percent of your FAAB, if you go that high. If you have Mostert, try to cash in on his huge day in trade, exploiting his spike in value.
Don’t let the blurred scoring lines of one exceptional week distort your view of the fantasy future.
Steady … steady …
Trevor Lawrence QB, Jaguars
After three weeks, he is QB17, behind even Joshua Dobbs. We expect the Jags offense to find its rhythm soon. Too much talent there not to. Hang tight.
Javonte Williams RB, Broncos
Yet to score double digits in PPR, but is coming off an ACL injury. He should get better little by little as season progress. Can bench, but don’t drop or trade at lowest value.
Tyler Lockett WR, Seahawks
Two duds and one blockbuster game so far. But it has been that way for much of Lockett’s career. As other weapons get integrated into the offense, Lockett’s chances of big plays rise.
Darren Waller TE, Giants
Despite averaging just 8.4 in PPR, he is TE8 on the season. At such a shallow position, he is still useful. And Giants offense can’t get any worse, right?
Panic! Panic!
Justin Fields QB, Bears
A QB who isn’t great when he throws and now isn’t running productively is bad in both reality and fantasy. Feel free to drop. Try to find C.J. Stroud, Jordan Love or even Matthew Stafford.
Derrick Henry RB, Titans
Averages 4.7 per carry for his career, but just 3.2 so far this season, and his workload is down. On a lackluster offense with QB problems, we’re not optimistic this changes. Bench, wait for a big game, then try to sell.
Najee Harris RB, Steelers
It hasn’t been pretty, and Jaylen Warren has looked more explosive when he has the ball — particularly in the pass game. Hard to envision a dramatic change. Treat similar to Henry.
Garrett Wilson WR, Jets
The good news: He likely will continue to be serviceable as a Flex. The bad: Likely no spike in fantasy enthusiasm unless the Jets make a QB change, so you’re probably stuck.
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