While they say the only two certainties in life are death and taxes, those who play fantasy baseball know that early-season overreactions are just as inevitable. It doesn’t matter if the season is a six-month, 162-game grind, hot and cold starts in March and April are overanalyzed to the point where new fantasy owners begin making mistakes while savvy veterans swim through chum-filled waters, waiting to strike. The perfect examples of potential overreactions and overvaluing of players can be found as early as Opening Day and if you aren’t careful, you could become one of the early-season casualties we witness every season.
There was a lot to love about how Garrett Crochet opened the 2024 MLB season for the White Sox. When originally drafted, the lefty was compared to a vintage Chris Sale and that commentary resurfaced after he limited the Tigers to one run on five hits (no walks) with eight strikeouts over six innings. He was locating his pitches well and was absolutely dominant with his slider. His next two starts line up against Kansas City and Cleveland, so you can expect him to be a popular add from the waiver wire this week.
Unfortunately, there should be little confidence for the entire season. Yes, he has plenty of raw talent, but you cannot ignore the fact he missed the entire 2022 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery and he only threw 12 ²/₃ innings in 2023. A normal year-to-year innings increase for pitchers is between 30-50 innings, so there should be major concerns with how many starts Crochet makes. Even if he is dominant in April, he should be one of the top sell-highs in fantasy. If you are going to add him off waivers, understand the clock to trade him is already ticking.
Reds designated hitter Nick Martini is another one to be wary of this weekend. Hitting two home runs on Opening Day is a surefire way to get noticed, but even with half his games being played in hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park, there needs to be concern regarding sustainability. He isn’t some young rookie just bursting onto the scene. Martini is a 33-year-old career minor leaguer who is now on his fourth team. He’s shown limited power and almost no speed throughout his career and his best asset is that he knows how to draw a walk. That’s not helping anyone this season, even if you are only looking for OBP help. Maybe the ballpark and early-season adjustments allow him to shine for a short while, but wasting free-agent bid dollars on him could be a huge mistake.
Betting on Baseball?
Navigating hot and cold starts can be tricky within a fantasy baseball season and the pomp and circumstance from the first few games can blind an owner. You don’t need to be negative over every hot start, but having a skeptic’s eye will certainly help your early-season decisions. Always dig deeper than the initial statistics. Be calm and be patient. The snake-oil salesmen are going to come out in droves, so keep a level head and you’ll get through it just fine.
Howard Bender is the head of content at FantasyAlarm.com. Follow him on X @rotobuzzguy and catch him on the award-winning “Fantasy Alarm Radio Show” on the SiriusXM fantasy sports channel weekdays from 6-8 p.m. Go to FantasyAlarm.com for all your fantasy baseball news and advice.
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