While the U.S. action is unlikely to have an immediate impact on crude prices given the current glut in the market, it could upend energy markets and have an impact on the geopolitical landscape.
The shale oil revolution made the U.S. the world’s largest crude producer. Recent, massive oil finds off the coast of Guyana are largely controlled by ExxonMobil and Chevron. U.S. control of the Venezuelan energy industry, which sits on the world’s largest oil reserves, could “reshape the balance of power in international energy markets,” analysts with JP Morgan wrote Monday.
“The combined total could position the US as a leading holder of global oil reserves, potentially accounting for about 30% of the world’s total if these figures are consolidated under US influence,” JP Morgan wrote. “This would mark a notable shift in global energy dynamics.”
Venezuela’s oil industry is in disrepair after years of neglect and international sanctions. Yet some oil industry analysts believe that Venezuela could double or triple its current output of about 1.1 million barrels of oil a day and return the nation to historic production levels relatively quickly.
“With greater access to and influence over a substantial portion of global reserves, the US could potentially exert more control over oil market trends, helping to stabilize prices and keep them within historically lower ranges,” according to JP Morgan. “This increased leverage would not only enhance US energy security but could also reshape the balance of power in international energy markets.”
If or when that would happen, however, is more complex. Many energy analysts see a longer and more difficult road ahead.
“While the Trump administration has suggested large U.S. oil companies will go into Venezuela and spend billions to fix infrastructure, we believe political and other risks along with current relatively low oil prices could prevent this from happening anytime soon,” wrote Neal Dingmann of William Blair. Material change to Venezuelan production will take a lot of time and millions of dollars of infrastructure improvement, he said.
And any investment in Venezuelan infrastructure right now would take place in a weakened global energy market. Crude prices in the U.S. are down 20% compared with last year. The price for a barrel of benchmark U.S. crude hasn’t been above $70 since June, and hasn’t touched $80 per barrel since the summer of 2024.
A barrel of oil cost more than $130 in the leadup to the the U.S. housing crisis in 2008.
There’s several factors that could impact Venezuelan production, including how quickly a government transition can take hold and how fast and willing multinational oil companies are to reenter the country, wrote John Freeman of Raymond James.
At the opening bell, shares in the energy sector moved broadly higher, particularly companies with large refinery operations.
Venezuela produces the kind of heavy crude oil that’s needed for diesel fuel, asphalt and other fuels for heavy equipment. Diesel is in short supply around the world because of the sanctions on oil from Venezuela and Russia and because America’s lighter crude oil can’t easily replace it.
Big refiners like Valero, Marathon Petroleum and Phillips 66 rose between 5% and 6% at the opening bell.
Oilfield service companies, those that actually go into the field and do the drilling and upkeep, rose even more sharply. SLB and Halliburton rose between 7% and 8%.
Major oil exploratory companies including ExxonMobil, Chevron and ConocoPhillips rose between 2% and 4%.
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