The euro and British pound hit multi-month lows against the U.S. dollar on Thursday, as the fresh trading year kicked off and investors geared up for the return of Donald Trump to the White House this month.
The euro was 0.42% lower against the greenback at $1.031 at 2:40 p.m. in London (9:40 a.m. ET), hitting its weakest level since November 2022. Sterling dropped nearly 1% to $1.239, an eight-month low.
Optimism around the U.S. economy and equities was in focus as markets reopened following disrupted trade over Christmas and the New Year. Wall Street stocks opened higher amid declines in Europe and the Asia-Pacific as the U.S. dollar index — a comparison against a basket of currencies — ticked up by 0.36%.
“Already [U.S.] growth has kept outpacing forecasts as consumers and companies have shrugged off the impact of high interest rates, with the unemployment rate remaining low,” Susannah Streeter, head of money and markets at Hargreaves Lansdown, said in a Thursday note.
“Investors are hopeful that a goldilocks scenario will be the story of 2025, amid promises of lower taxes and deregulation under a second Trump presidency.”
Euro/U.S. dollar
“The greenback continues to find support from expectations of USD-bullish Trump policies and fading conviction around the Fed’s rate-cut trajectory for 2025,” Mohamad Al-Saraf, FX and rates strategy associate at Danske Bank, said in a Thursday note.
Key data ahead in assessing the robustness of the U.S. macro narrative includes Thursday’s jobless claims and Friday’s ISM manufacturing report, along with next week’s non-farm payrolls, Al-Saraf said.
He added that the euro was likely to fall back to U.S. dollar parity in the medium-term, a benchmark it last hit in November 2022. However, Al-Saraf said that market pricing for less than two quarter-point rate cuts this year may prove overly hawkish, and along with any negative U.S. data surprises could trigger a dollar correction.
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