Euro zone inflation, November 2024

Annual euro zone inflation rose to 2.3% in November, statistics agency Eurostat said Friday, climbing back above the European Central Bank’s 2% target.

Economists polled by Reuters had expected the 2.3% annual rate for the month, up from 2% in October.

Price rises in the bloc have ticked higher for two straight months after dropping to 1.7% in September, as was expected due to the fading deflationary pull from energy prices.

Core inflation, excluding volatile energy, food, alcohol and tobacco prices, held at 2.7% for a third straight month in November.

The core rate is being propped up by the stickiness of services inflation, which only slid slightly to 3.9% in November from 4% during the previous month.

Markets have fully priced in a 25-basis-point interest rate cut from the ECB in December, which would mark the institution’s fourth trim of the year.

Speculation that the central bank could be pushed into a larger 50-basis-point cut has faded since last month, after slight improvements in the weak euro area growth outlook and a rebound in inflation.

Inflation came in slightly higher than forecast in October, while ECB policymakers, including executive board member Isabel Schnabel, have stressed the need for caution in monetary easing.

The ECB’s decision will largely be informed by the latest staff macroeconomic projections it will receive just ahead of its upcoming Dec. 12 meeting. The central bank will also be weighing the potential global impact of the recent election of Donald Trump as U.S. president, including whether he will follow through on his threats of universal trade tariffs and how such a step would impact European Union exports.

The euro was little-changed against the U.S. dollar and British pound following the data release.

Kyle Chapman, FX market analyst at Ballinger Group, said in an emailed note that the uptick in headline inflation was solely down to year-on-year energy price volatility, and that the ECB would look favorably on a 0.9 percentage point fall in month-on-month services inflation.  

“With the growth picture looking soft, there is still no doubt that inflation will fall to 2% on a sustainable basis next year,” Chapman said, adding that the market nonetheless appeared to have settled on a 25-basis-point move in December.

“The economy is not falling off a cliff just yet and there is uncertainty about where the neutral rate is, so there is no pressing need to start frontloading cuts,” he noted.

Melanie Debono, senior Europe economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said the inflation figures, combined with recent data showing record low unemployment and higher negotiated wage growth in the third quarter, will prevent a 50-basis-point cut.

The final monetary policy decision will nevertheless remain a “close call,” with the more dovish members of the ECB pushing hard for a 50-basis-point trim, Debono said. If the central bank does stick with a 25-basis-point move, it will likely follow this step with cuts of the same size at both of its following meetings in January and March, she added.