European leaders push defense spend amid uncertainty over Trump aid to Ukraine

A week since Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s heated expulsion from the White House, European leaders have upped the ante on defense spending plans as they seek to support Kyiv and fill a potential void of U.S. aid.  

This week, the European Commission proposed measures for fiscal flexibility on defense spending and a plan to borrow 150 billion euros ($163 billions) to lend to EU governments for Europe-wide defense capabilities, including artillery systems, missiles and anti-drone systems.

With this equipment, the EU stressed it could “massively step up” its support to Ukraine, which has depended on both Europe and the U.S. for military and humanitarian aid throughout its three-year resistance to Russia’s invasion. Altogether, the so-called ReArm Europe plan could mobilize nearly 800 billion euros.  

European leaders backed the initiative at a meeting on Thursday, with European Council President Antonio Costa saying the continent — which fears Russia could set its sights on other member states if it prevails in Ukraine — was now “putting our money where our mouth is” and “moving decisively towards a strong and more sovereign Europe of defense.”

Donald Tusk, prime minister of Poland — which borders Russia — backed the plan, saying Europe must “arm itself more wisely and faster than Russia” and faced a “new arms race started by Putin.”

Critically, Costa said that member states should be allowed flexibility under common EU fiscal rules, which currently restrict the amount of debt a country can undertake.

Europe’s largest economy, Germany, set the tone with similar discussions earlier this week, when Berlin lawmakers under expected-next chancellor Friedrich Merz announced plans to reform the nation’s long-standing debt policy to allow for higher defense spending. Outside of the EU, the U.K. last week announced intentions to raise its defense contribution to 2.5% of the country’s gross domestic product from April 2027.

“The move on defense has very clear motives and reasons behind it. It is welcome in terms of the security and safety of Europe, if that is the case. And if it is well designed, it can only have a positive impact in the in the economy and in the European society,” European Central Bank policymaker Mario Centeno told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” on Friday.

This week’s EU proposals were not universally endorsed, however, with historically pro-Russia Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban opting out of the joint EU statements on support to Ukraine. Orban, who has refused to send weapons to Ukraine and frequently described himself as a “peacemaker” in the conflict, said on Friday that the EU’s current support initiative for Ukraine through additional defense spending will “ruin Europe.”

“If now the U.S. quits (financing the war) …why would the other 26 member states have a chance to take this war to the end?” Orban said on state radio, according to Reuters.

ING analysts were also reserved on the EU plans, saying that Europe’s rearmament strategy will have a “moderate” impact on eurozone growth and fiscal spending, and that Europe’s low defense production capacity will likely lead to higher imports.

They added that, under the strategy, the need for the European Central Bank to continue easing monetary policy — as it did through a sixth interest rate cut on Thursday — will “fade quickly,” with the bank pushed into the role of a “lender of last resort of eurozone government” amid higher bond yields and the potential widening of spreads.

A splintering relationship with the White House has left Europe with few cards to play beyond accelerating its defense spending.

Under President Donald Trump’s second administration, the U.S. has threatened steep tariffs on the EU as part of its protectionist policies designed to ease Washington’s trade deficit — setting up a heavy blow to Europe’s already listless economy.

Trump has also repeatedly criticized the failure of European countries to meet NATO’s 2%-of-GDP defense contribution target, claiming this week that “Europe has sadly spent more money buying Russian oil and gas than they have spent on defending Ukraine by far,” without clarifying whether the assessment referred to nations within the EU or the continent whole.

The transatlantic geopolitical fissures deepened last week after a public White House clash between Trump, Vice President JD Vance and Zelenskyy that left U.S. aid to Ukraine under question and paralyzed the planned formalization of a critical minerals development deal.

Trump, who has also rekindled relations with an isolated Kremlin and broached potential peace talks, last week accused Zelenskyy of being unprepared to discuss an end to the war. The White House leader has since softened his tone, claiming this week to have received a letter that expressed Zelenskyy’s willingness to “work under President Trump’s strong leadership to get a peace that lasts” and sign the minerals agreement.

The Ukrainian president echoed the sentiment in a Google-translated Telegram post on Thursday, saying:  “As we told President Trump, Ukraine is working and will work exclusively constructively for a quick and reliable peace,” and separately noting on X that Ukrainian and American teams have “resumed work” with a “meaningful meeting” targeted to take place next week.

Sidelined throughout the U.S.-Russia talks, the EU has sought to reinstate itself in the peacemaking process amid fears that dwindling aid from Washington could force Ukraine into truce-geared territorial concessions to Moscow.  

“Dear Volodymyr, we have been with you since day one. We’ll continue to be with you now, and we will continue in the future,” Costa said in an address, separately telling reporters that the bloc was preparing to support Kyiv when it engages in negotiations to reach the “positive outcome” of a “just and lasting peace.”

 — CNBC’s Sophie Kiderlin contributed to this report