The 150th running of the Preakness Stakes will feature a nine-horse field headlined by Journalism, the 8-5 favorite on the morning line and the runner-up at the 2025 Kentucky Derby.
Though No. 2 Journalism will deservedly get plenty of fanfare as he looks to capture the biggest win of his career, the biggest story at Pimlico is about a horse who isn’t making the trip.
Sovereignty, the winner of the Kentucky Derby, will bypass the Preakness and head straight to the Belmont Stakes.
Trainer Bill Mott didn’t elaborate on the decision, but the tight turnaround between the Derby and Preakness is likely why we won’t see Sovereignty continue his bid for the Triple Crown.
Sovereignty’s withdrawal does change the makeup of this field. Not only will the race be less attractive to casual fans, but it also means that Journalism will be a clear and consensus favorite in the Preakness.
Everybody wants to see the Derby winner in the Preakness, but the silver lining to Sovereignty skipping is that it does make the big-picture analysis of this race more straightforward.
Had Sovereignty made the trip, we’d likely be looking at a situation where the 1-2 finishers from the Kentucky Derby would go off close to co-favorites, which would complicate how you’d handicap this race.
With the Derby winner out of the picture, the main crux of this handicap becomes which horses do you want to use with Journalism, the deserving favorite in this field.
Outside of a bad trip or something unforeseen, it’s hard to see Journalism missing the board in this race. But given that he’s likely to go off at a very short price, you’re going to want to add some juice to your exotics (exactas, trifectas, etc.) by trying to find a couple of long shots who have the potential to outrun their odds, and maybe even steal the show.
No. 9 Gosger (20-1)
This is a big step up in competition for Gosger, named after early 1970s Mets outfielder Jim Gosger, but he has improved each time out, including his recent win at the Lexington Stakes at Keeneland on April 12.
Gosger has posted impressive speed figures in his past two races, and if he improves on those, he will be a contender to not just hit the board at a big price, but perhaps find his way into the winner’s circle.
It seems as if Gosger will be the trendiest of the true long shots, but his price should stay palatable given the amount of support that Journalism, No. 7 Sandman, and No. 1 Goal Oriented (the Bob Baffert horse) will get at the window.
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No. 8 Clever Again (5-1)
The fourth choice according to the morning-line odds, Clever Again has a real chance to make some noise on Saturday and will benefit from an outside post position, allowing him to get right to the front, which is his best chance of winning this race.
And the best part? There is a good chance we get a better price than the 5-1 Clever Again was tagged with on the morning line.
This horse has a good chance of flying under the radar not only compared to Journalism, Sandman, and Goal Oriented, but also River Thames, who was priced a shade shorter than Clever Again at 9-2.
Recommendation: Trifecta box 2-8-9.
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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
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