French politics to be ‘even messier’ after Le Pen barred, analysts say

Paris has been plunged into more political turmoil after far-right firebrand Marine Le Pen’s presidential hopes were dashed by a ban to run for public office — as analysts warn the decision could further destabilize the euro zone’s second-largest economy.

The country suffered another political bombshell on Monday after Le Pen, the leader of far-right National Rally party, was convicted of embezzling EU funds and barred from running for public office for five years, with immediate effect. The ruling effectively disqualifies Le Pen from the 2027presidential election.

Le Pen vehemently denies any wrongdoing and on Monday night vowed to appeal the conviction, which she dubbed as a “biased” and “political decision.”

“I am combative, I won’t allow myself to be eliminated like this. I will use all the possible routes to appeal. There is a narrow path. It is indeed very narrow, but it exists. I will indeed ask as clearly as possible for the appeal decision to be allowed so I can be considered to run for the presidential election,” Le Pen told broadcaster TF1, according to a CNBC translation.

The Paris Criminal Court judge presiding over the case, Benedicte de Perthuis, denied delivering a political verdict on Monday, saying nobody had “immunity in violation of the rule of law.”

Le Pen’s conviction has put France’s political establishment on high alert amid concerns of potential backlash from her supporters and worries that the judgment could be seen as a political prosecution.

Even some of Le Pen’s political opponents, such as leftwing leader Jean-Luc Melenchon and Prime Minister Francois Bayrou, voiced disquiet over a court having the power to immediately bar Le Pen, particularly before appeals processes have run their course.

National Rally Spokesperson Fabrice Leggeri told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” Tuesday that the ruling was a “threat to French democracy” and that there was a lack of “neutrality” in the French justice system.

Meanwhile, National Rally President Jordan Bardella — a likely “plan B’ for the party’s presidential candidate if Le Pen’s appeal does not succeed — called on supporters to sign a petition endorsing Le Pen and “a peaceful mobilization” to defend the politician.

Analysts agree that the ruling could have an unsettling effect on French politics at a time when the country has already experienced months of wrangling over its government leadership and spending and taxation plans.

The court ruling could make National Rally more volatile and more likely to bring down the already fragile government led by centrist PM Bayrou, who only recently — and narrowly — managed to pass a 2025 budget to tackle France’s deficit, which hit 5.8% of economic output last year.

“In the near term, this verdict will make it even more difficult to govern France,” Berenberg Bank Economist Salomon Fiedler said Monday in emailed analysis entitled “French politics turn even messier.”

“With parliament divided into three roughly equal-sized factions, the right and left together can topple the centrist minority government at any time. Feeling judged unfairly, the National Rally are now less likely to cooperate with the government and more likely to support a motion of no confidence against prime minister François Bayrou,” he noted.

As for Le Pen’s own political future, analysts stressed that it is too early to write off her presidential ambitions, adding that National Rally is likely to portray Le Pen as a political martyr and victim of the establishment.

Berenberg’s Fiedler noted that the party “may be able to play the verdict to their favour by claiming political persecution and riding on anti-establishment sentiment.”

Mujtaba Rahman, managing director of Europe, agreed, noted Monday that “this was not a ‘political’ trial but Le Pen will now seek to make it into one.  She may succeed.”

Noting that Le Pen’s political fate “was not decided” by the Monday ruling, Rahman said the politician will almost certainly bring an emergency appeal before one of three French bodies which fulfil a role equivalent to that of the U.S. Supreme Court.

There, she will ask the Constitutional Council to answer a “priority question” on the validity of her immediate five-year ban, given before appeals against conviction.

“She is expected to argue before the Constitutional Council that she is too important a politician to ban. It would be an affront to French democracy, her lawyers will say, if voters are barred from casting ballots for a front-runner in the presidential election in 2027,” Rahman noted.

Rahman said there was a “strong chance” that the ban on Le Pen could be suspended if an emergency appeal before France’s Constitutional Council concludes that voters’ rights should prevail over the letter of the law. The process will take time, however,

“These appeals are is likely to last at least two years and allow her to run for President in April-May 2027,” he noted.