The Post’s Erich Richter makes his picks and predictions for Week 17 of the NFL season.
Sunday
Titans +1.5 over JAGUARS
Going 2-13 against the spread with a 3-13 record is a fireable offense for Titans coach Brian Callahan. Tennessee waited far too long to bench quarterback Will Levis.
The new signal caller is Mason Rudolph, who isn’t anything to write home about, but he doesn’t usually turn the ball over at a historic rate.
Last week, he threw three interceptions, so don’t hold your breath that the Titans can figure it out.
The Jaguars defense has the fewest takeaways in the NFL (eight).
Packers +1.5 over VIKINGS
Sharps have been betting the Vikings up, down and sideways since this line opened, as Green Bay opened as two-point favorites and the line has now flipped to Packers +1.5.
Sharps obviously think we are overreacting to the dominance the Packers have shown recently.
But my model has the Packers listed as a one-point favorite, and DVOA supports it, with Green Bay ranked No. 3 in the NFL to the Vikings’ No. 6.
It’s the marquee game of the weekend; sit back and enjoy a true playoff game.
BUCCANEERS -8 over Panthers
Tampa Bay needed overtime to take the Panthers down in Week 13, but I’m not expecting that to occur again for a few reasons.
Carolina has the sixth-fewest yards per play on offense and allows the fifth most yards per play on defense.
The Panthers have ridden Chubba Hubbard to a few wins and covers as underdogs, but Hubbard is done for the season and the Buccaneers are allowing just 2.8 YPC.
Let Bryce Young throw and you will watch him make mistakes. Bucky Irving smashes to run up the score in a critical division game.
Colts -7.5 over GIANTS
There is not much you can point to statistically to say that the Giants should be more than a touchdown dog to the .500 Colts at home, and still, I could not even form an argument for your hard-earned money being wagered on this team.
Their offense can’t sustain drives, and the defense doesn’t turn it over.
Their defense also struggles against the run, allowing the fifth most rushing yards per carry this season.
Joe Flacco starts for Indy and loves throwing the ball deep.
The Giants are allowing 58.2 percent completions on deep passes, by far the worst number in the NFL.
Raiders -1 over SAINTS
The Saints just got shut out by the Packers and looked completely inept for most of that game.
Meanwhile the Raiders looked solid against the Jaguars and face a team with the second-worst rushing defense in the NFL (31st in run defense DVOA).
Las Vegas appears to be playing harder at this stage and can be trusted with your money on Sunday.
Jets +10 over BILLS
The Jets won’t stop teasing what could have been.
Gang Green is a live double-digit underdog thanks to an improving run attack that has resulted in 4.4 YPC in their last three games and overall offense.
They have the 18th rated offense in DVOA, ahead of the Seahawks, Broncos and Colts, all borderline playoff teams.
The Jets will play this division game close enough to cover 10 but likely lose another heartbreaker.
Cowboys +7.5 over EAGLES
Oddsmakers suggest that the downgrade from Jalen Hurts to Kenny Pickett is worth just four points, as the spread moved from 11.5 to 7.5 after it was announced Hurts is out with a concussion.
That number seems a bit low, considering the eighth and ninth points in a given spread are nearly worthless.
Dallas is believing right now, and its defense is forcing turnovers in a big way, averaging the fourth most in its last three games (2.3).
The difference between Cooper Rush and Pickett is pretty negligible as well, even with CeeDee Lamb out this weekend.
Dolphins -6.5 over BROWNS
Dorian Thompson-Robinson might be the worst quarterback in the NFL, and his supporting cast isn’t any better.
Cleveland is rated No. 32 across the entire league in DVOA and has now inserted Thompson-Robinson as quarterback.
He’s thrown just one touchdown in his NFL career and couldn’t score on the Bengals’ terrible pass defense.
He won’t find much more sanctuary than that. Miami is the 12th-best pass defense in yards per pass attempt (6.5) and eighth-best against the run (4.3 YPC allowed).
There’s enough here for Miami to cruise.
Falcons +4 over COMMANDERS
The Commanders might just be the luckiest team in the NFL.
After winning on a Hail Mary earlier this year, Washington was in the process of being absolutely waxed by the Eagles on Sunday before Jalen Hurts went down with an injury.
This insane stream of good fortune has to end at some point.
Atlanta is 10th best in yards per play on offense (5.7) and 13th best in yards per play allowed (5.4).
Most of that was with Kirk Cousins, and Michael Penix should be nothing but an upgrade here. Atlanta rolls.
Monday
Lions -3.5 over 49ERS
Before the season started, this game was lined as 49ers -4.5, but now this game is a shell of its expected greatness. It’s the injured versus the battered on “Monday Night Football.”
Detroit is still holding onto hope that they can snag the No. 1 seed in the NFC while Kyle Shanahan’s group plays for pride.
Betting on the NFL?
Their peripheral stats are still excellent: 11th best in DVOA, fourth best in yards per play (6.1), and fourth best in yards per play allowed (5.1).
They’ve found ways to lose their past two games by taking too many sacks (six), not getting any (zero), and turning the ball over (negative two turnover differential).
Detroit covers a bit of a chess match that will be a must-win, especially if the Packers beat the Vikings on Sunday.
Last Week: 6-6-1
Season: 105-114-3
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