I believe the Yankees will try mightily to sign Juan Soto long term after this season.
I just wanted to get that out of the way. Because when Hal Steinbrenner said last month, “Look, I’m gonna be honest, payrolls at levels we’re at right now are simply not sustainable for us financially,” the Hot Take Industrial Complex immediately went to work and saw this as prepping the fan base for Soto to be one-and-done in pinstripes.
Sure, maybe. But it is not what I took from that. I think Steinbrenner wants a championship contender and sees how good Soto is for that, and for business, and will personally and financially invest in the process to keep him, as he did with Aaron Judge.
I know Soto and his representative, Scott Boras, will insist they are open to bids from all 30 teams. But I sense that Soto in his time with the Padres did not like home games ending at 1 a.m.-ish Eastern time, when his family back home (especially his mom) was asleep.
Still, even if limited to Chicago eastward, Soto will not lack for suitors. He is among the greatest hitters before age 26 in history — and he does not even turn 26 until Oct. 25, which just happens to coincide with World Series Game 1. A lot can occur between now and then, as the scare with Soto’s forearm in the past few days accentuated.
But on this trajectory, the Yankees likely will have competition.
Will Steve Cohen simply not allow himself to be outbid for Soto?
Shohei Ohtani offered unique opportunities both as a player and for his marketability. Thus, teams might not be willing to extend quite as far for Soto. Nevertheless, the Cubs and Blue Jays were in on Ohtani, and I would imagine they would try to be aggressive on Soto considering his age and impact.
Could the Nationals decide to try to have their baseball cake and eat it too? They are getting the benefits of their return from trading Soto to the Padres with players such as CJ Abrams and Mackenzie Gore plus, among others, outfielder James Wood, not far away. Keibert Ruiz has six years at $40 million left, and that is the only long-term money Washington has invested moving forward.
There are persistent rumors that the Nationals will be sold. If it happens in the short term, would there be any greater statement to the fans than bringing Soto home?
But for the purposes of this exercise, let’s just say the Yankees keep Soto. And despite the phone call I am about to receive from Boras saying I am low, let’s make his annual value $47 million, because that would be a record — eclipsing the true current value of Ohtani’s heavily deferred contract.
At that number, the Yankees would have Soto, Aaron Judge, Gerrit Cole, Giancarlo Stanton, Carlos Rodon, Marcus Stroman and DJ LeMahieu at $205.5 million (everything will be for luxury-tax purposes, because Steinbrenner was lamenting not just the payroll but how much that payroll will cost in additional tax). That is just seven players, and another $10 million has to be added to cover the gift that keeps on giving to the Yankees — Aaron Hicks’ final contract year.
It’s roughly another $20 million to cover items that all teams are charged for, benefits and the 0-to-3 arbitration pool. The only arbitration-eligible players the Yankees currently seem sure to arbitrate with are Nestor Cortes, Clarke Schmidt and Jose Trevino, plus the Yankees probably will pick up Luke Weaver’s $2.5 million 2025 option. All told that should take them to around $250 million.
So if, for example, Steinbrenner’s plan is to take them definitely under the $301 million top threshold next year, that will be a challenge, and if it is under the $281 million second threshold, that will be extremely difficult.
The Yankees would have to look inward to inexpensively replace looming free agents. Alex Verdugo is showing himself to be a terrific all-around complementary player. But Jasson Dominguez is ready to fill his spot. Clay Holmes has been among the majors’ best relievers since joining the Yankees in 2021. But the Yankees have done a brilliant job for years now of unearthing and developing good arms into effective relievers — such as Holmes. So it might fall to Weaver or Ian Hamilton or someone else to do the closing job for much less.
Are Jon Berti, Oswaldo Cabrera, Caleb Durbin or Oswald Peraza ready individually or in some combination to replace Gleyber Torres? Anthony Rizzo is due $17 million in 2025 or a $6 million buyout, so it is an $11 million decision. Rizzo has been below par on both sides of the ball this year. He has time to rectify that, and his closeness to Judge should not be dismissed considering Judge’s influence with Steinbrenner. But what if the Yankees think lefty-swinging Ben Rice, promoted in the past week to Triple-A after producing 12 homers and an .849 OPS in 49 Double-A games, is ready to handle first in the majors?
Clearly, the Yankees are going to need youngsters to step up and step in. However, if they still need to cut payroll, they could try trading a starter. The emergence of Luis Gil and Clarke Schmidt to go along with Gerrit Cole would give the Yankees a cornerstone for 2025. They could then consider moving one from among Nestor Cortes, Carlos Rodon and Marcus Stroman.
Cortes will make around $9 million next season in his last year before free agency. Stroman is due $18 million with an $18 million player option for 2026 if he reaches 140 innings this year (and he is at 74). Rodon is due four years at $108 million.
Keep in mind Robbie Ray made one start last year, needed Tommy John surgery and was sure not to pitch, at minimum, the first half this season, yet the Mariners were able to trade him with three years at $73 million left to the Giants and take on $47.5 million of Anthony Desclafani and Mitch Haniger. Rodon, in the midst of a rebound season, should have value if he stays healthy, especially if the Yankees were to eat some money or take back dollars. Rodon does have a complete no-trade clause.
None of these decisions would be easy. All the starters — Verdugo and Holmes, for example — have been instrumental in the Yankees’ storming to the AL’s best record. But this would be like having a salary cap at whatever payroll Steinbrenner established. Like in salary-cap leagues, you can’t have it all. Look, we can have a discussion about Steinbrenner opening his books or that he can afford more. But he has said for years that he does not believe you need a $300 million payroll to win, so I assume he is going to work to sink below that — and more. It might be easier after 2026 when LeMahieu and Stanton are done, but by then the Yankees will have to think about a long-term deal for Anthony Volpe — maybe before.
It is going to take a lot of creativity for the Yankees to retain Soto, maintain excellence and drop payroll.
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