If Aaron Rodgers is fully healthy again, that would be a dangerous proposition for the rest of the NFL.
In some respects, it’s good that Rodgers’ Achilles injury last season happened so early. The Jets finished 30th in ESPN’s pass-block win rate, and a full year of getting battered behind that line would have inevitably shortened what’s left of Rodgers’s career.
Instead, he’s fresh and poised for a strong season behind an improved line.
The Jets attacked their most significant weakness this offseason, signing veteran offensive tackles Tyron Smith and Morgan Moses in free agency. They also drafted Penn State product Olu Fashanu in the first round, and he’ll be one of the best insurance policies in the NFL as a ready-made pass protector.
They also rounded out their wide receiver corps with veteran Mike Williams and rookie draft pick Malachi Corley. Make no mistake, though: Garrett Wilson will get all the targets he can handle.
How will this all play out for Rodgers and the Jets? Let’s take a look at the quarterback’s futures betting markets:
MVP
The best odds on Rodgers to win MVP are currently 25/1 at FanDuel. That places him 11th on the board, behind or tied with some of the top quarterbacks in the league, including AFC East competitors Josh Allen (+800) and Tua Tagovailoa (25/1).
In Rodgers’ last fully healthy season, he threw for 3,695 yards and 26 touchdowns to 12 interceptions with the Packers in 2022. That was a steep decline from his 2021 production, when he was a first-team All-Pro with 37 touchdowns to just four picks.
Regardless of whether you feel that ceiling is obtainable for Rodgers at this point in his career, a better question is whether it will even be necessary. The Jets finished third in defensive EPA/play last year and boast an excellent running back in Breece Hall.
Don’t expect them to be involved in a lot of shootouts that would allow Rodgers to boost his statistics.
Comeback Player of the Year
Rodgers is the prevailing favorite to win CPOY, with current odds of +125 odds on DraftKings. That’s an implied probability of 44.4 percent, and there isn’t nearly enough value at that number for me to lock up money with the season still three months away.
That’s especially true with Joe Burrow (+210) and Kirk Cousins (+500) offering compelling cases as star quarterbacks returning from significant injuries. And, if we’re being honest, Burrow and Cousins are more appealing in the media sphere.
Passing yards
Rodgers is currently priced at 22/1 to lead the league in this category, placing him 11th on the odds board. Brock Purdy (25/1), Trevor Lawrence (25/1) and Kyler Murray (50/1) are much more enticing options in that price range, given the expected game scripts for the Jets this season.
Rodgers also has a passing yardage prop set at 3,800.5 on DraftKings. While he’s cleared that number in all but one (2022) of the full seasons he’s played in his career, I don’t foresee a heavy passing volume for the Jets in 2024.
Betting on the NFL?
Futures best bet
Jets fans are thrilled about their team’s potential in 2024, and they should be with Rodgers again healthy. However, I don’t anticipate the Jets leaning heavily on the passing game as they boast an elite defense, special teams and an excellent rushing presence.
New York has legitimate Super Bowl potential this season, and Rodgers gives the team a high ceiling so long as he’s healthy. Still, I’m not banking on an individually proficient season for the 40-year-old passer.
I’d rather invest in the Jets to win the Lombardi Trophy (24/1) than add Rodgers to my futures portfolio.
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