How to view Michael Conforto's red-hot start

If a player such as Mookie Betts goes through a cold streak, fantasy managers just hope it doesn’t last too long.

If a player such as Freddie Freeman gets hot at the plate, fantasy managers wonder how long it will last.

When a player such as Michael Conforto starts the season on a tear, fantasy managers question it and wonder whether it’s real or fake.

Conforto entered the weekend hitting .370 and tied with 10 others for the third-most homers (three). He also ranked fifth in RBIs (nine), seventh in runs (eight), fourth in slugging percentage (.778) and sixth in OPS (1.192) among players with a minimum of 20 plate appearances.

Conforto, who was the four-most added player in ESPN leagues this week, is a career .254 hitter who has hit above .270 twice — the first time being his 2017 All-Star campaign when he hit .279 and the other when he hit .322 in the COVID-shortened 2020 season. If you think Conforto is going to hit .370, you must also believe Santa Claus is real (sorry, kids).

Conforto has struck out in 31 percent of his plate appearances and walked just 6.1 percent of the time, but the most telling sign of things to come is his .467 BABIP, which indicates he has gotten lucky and is definitely due for regression. But his numbers shouldn’t sink to the point that he won’t be useful.

Truth be told, it never has been an issue of whether Conforto is capable of being a reliable fantasy option. He always has been and likely still will be (albeit not at the current pace at the plate) — as long as he stays healthy. Too many injuries are a big reason why he hasn’t been a more consistent option year in and year out.

Conforto has played in more than 125 games in a season just twice, the most recent being 2019 when he played in 151. He played in 125 games in 2021 and 2023 (he did not play in 2022), but hit .235 with a .724 OPS while averaging 14 homers and 56 RBIs. Now, he appears to be healthy, and as long as he is in the Giants’ lineup, there is no reason to believe he can’t be a solid outfielder on your squad.

Now let’s see if we believe in some other hot starts:

Pittsburgh’s Connor Joe (20.7 percent rostered) entered the weekend hitting .346 with one homer, seven RBIs, nine runs and a 1.084 OPS in his first six games. Here is the concern: Throughout his career, the opening month always has been his best (.272, 9 HR, 26 RBIs, .884 OPS). For example: Over his first 16 games in 2023, he hit .377 with eight RBIs, 13 runs and a 1.138 OPS. He hit .228 in the following 117 games. In 2022, he hit .322 with four homers, six RBIs, 11 runs and a 1.039 OPS in his first 15 games. He hit .223 with a .639 OPS in the 96 games that followed. Though the multiple position eligibility is nice, this is just Joe’s latest hot start, and it is doubtful the outcome is going to change in 2024.

Christopher Morel (49.9 percent rostered) has scored a run and gotten a hit in each of his first six games while hitting .375 with two homers and a 1.131 OPS. He will not hit .375 (he was a .250 hitter in the minors), but he has a big bat (he smashed 27 homers and drove in 70 runs with a .821 OPS in 107 games last year) and should be in the Cubs’ lineup more often than not. He should be on fantasy rosters more often than not, too.

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Michael A. Taylor (4.9 percent rostered) is another Pirate who is off to a red-hot start. He entered the weekend with a seven-game hit streak — going 12-for-25 (.480) with seven runs, one stolen base and a 1.083 OPS. He had at least one RBI and one run scored in five of those games. Hate to be the bearer of bad news, but he has also struck out 27.6 percent of the time, and his insane .632 BABIP indicates a huge regression is coming. He may get plenty of playing time because of his defense, but this is a 33-year-old who is a career .240 hitter and has hit above .254 once in his career — in 2017. Ride the hot streak but don’t expect a prolonged breakout.

San Diego catcher Luis Campusano hit .319 with seven homers, 30 RBIs, 27 runs and a .847 OPS before his season ended after playing just 49 games last year. Over his first seven games of 2024, he is 12-for-30 (.400) with one homer, seven RBIs, five runs and a 1.000 OPS. His strikeout rate in his first 30 plate appearances ranks in the top 1 percent of the league. Though his xBA is .342 and BABIP (.393) do point to things not staying this pristine, there is a reason he was the most added position player in ESPN leagues this week (and he still is just 55.7 percent rostered). Roto Rage understands the concerns about his durability, but Campusano has the potential to be one of the top hitting backstops in the game and should be treated as such until there is something to be concerned about.

Big Hits

Cole Ragans SP, Royals

Has a 17 percent swinging-strike rate, including 16.2 percent with his cutter and an insane 34 percent with his changeup, to go along with a 1.46 ERA, 11.7 strikeouts per nine and a .140 opponents average.

Jarren Duran OF, Red Sox

Stole at least one base in four of his first seven games and enters the weekend tied for the league lead with six thefts while hitting .393.

Seth Lugo SP, Royals

The former Met struck out just 4.97 per nine over his first two starts, but he is 1-0 with a 0.71 ERA and a .222 opponents average.

Spencer Steer 1B/2B/3B/OF, Reds

Had at least one RBI in four of his first six games while hitting .435 with a homer, eight RBIs, one stolen base and 1.219 OPS.

Big Whiffs

Michael King SP/RP, Padres

The ex-Yankee has a 6.14 ERA and 2.182 WHIP while going 1-0 with 10 walks and two homers allowed in his first two appearances.

Lane Thomas OF, Nationals

He is 2-for-24 (.083) with no homers or runs scored, four RBIs and a .262 OPS in his first six games. At least he has two stolen bases, right?

Zack Thompson P, Cardinals

Not only does he have a 6.97 ERA, he has allowed four homers, has walked 5.2 per nine and opponents are hitting .268 against him.

Jose Leclerc RP, Rangers

Owns a 20.25 ERA after allowing at least one run in each of his first three appearances. Opponents are hitting .273 against him with a .802 OPS. Keep an eye on David Robertson’s availability.

Check Swings

Joe Musgrove allowed 10 earned runs over his first two starts, going 1-1 with a 6.28 ERA and .351 opponents average (his xERA and xBA are even higher). His velocity appears to be down on his fastball, his walk rate is up and his strikeout rate is down. Not a great start.
Fast start: Milwaukee’s Brice Turang was the most added second baseman in ESPN leagues after hitting .438 with two RBIs, two runs and six stolen bases (tied for the league lead) in his first five games.
Fun with numbers: Mookie Betts hit .485 with five homers, 11 RBIs and a 1.686 OPS over his first nine games. He also scored 14 runs, which was more than the White Sox (12) and Mets (13) had in their first six games.

Aaron Civale, who is amazingly available in almost 60 percent of ESPN leagues, has struck out 31.1 percent of the batters he has faced while going 1-1 with a 1.50 ERA and .190 opponents average. There will be regression with his 100 percent strand rate, 2.38 xERA and 3.37 xFIP, but he is going to remain a valuable starter.
After experiencing elbow pain in each of his first two starts this season, Guardians ace Shane Bieber will undergo season-ending surgery. Is he sure the pain is in his elbow? It kind of looked like his right arm was working just fine. Over 12 innings, he didn’t allow a run, struck out 20 (15 per nine innings), walked 2.2 percent of the batters he faced and owned a 0.917 WHIP. Opponents were hitting .227 against him and he had a 16.9 percent swinging-strike rate, including 34.8 percent with his slider. Sure, his BABIP (.417), xERA (2.62) and xFIP (0.60) pointed to some regression, but this was a monster start — even better when realizing he had a 129.2 average draft position.