It’s like the spark you get with a first kiss. That fleeting moment of limitless possibilities, the emotional butterflies and anxiety of not messing it up, that deep attachment to something more than yourself, something that could make you a better you.
Of course I’m talking about fantasy football, and the anticipated real self-fulfillment those virtual teams can bring at the kickoff of a new football season.
Your season-long rosters should be set, after days or weeks to consider your options.
But the daily front is where we’re still playing the field, where you can still pucker up for a new team.
The first week of DFS is unique: no new data to analyze, more participants and more inexperience to exploit, salaries set further ahead of time and subject to more expected changes.
Thus, we aren’t going to concern ourselves with usage rates. The sharks like to pivot away from obvious value plays, and the inexperienced don’t as easily recognize value plays, so we’re gonna to snuggle up with some value plays.
With no Jonathan Taylor to start the season and Zack Moss dealing with an arm injury, we’re turning to cheap option Deon Jackson ($4,100 at DraftKings).
The player isn’t what interests us, nor the matchup, we’re just looking for cheap volume, and Jackson should provide that.
And though some worry about quarterback Anthony Richardson stealing ground yards from running backs, we imagine the raw rookie also won’t be throwing a ton, so the volume of rushes will still be there.
Cooper Kupp also will be out in Week 1, which should mean more looks for tight end Tyler Higbee ($4,800). The possibility the Rams are playing from behind in Seattle doesn’t hurt our interests.
Alvin Kamara is suspended for the first three games, which will leave ample work for Saints free-agent addition Jamaal Williams ($5,100) — who was a touchdown machine for Detroit last season.
Again, looking a volume over matchup, but having a brand new quarterback who is still learning the offense could benefit the amount of use for the run game.
The Dolphins’ backfield is a mess, but Raheem Mostert ($5,400) is easily the lead guy, and in the past he has been explosive when healthy. He has Flex appeal.
The Cardinals’ QBs are unattractive options. They are starting Joshua Dobbs (who?) on the road against a pretty good Commanders defense, likely with Chase Young back. Give us the Washington DST, no matter how popular.
So we got our value plays, now we add a short stack. To pair with QB Trevor Lawrence ($6,500), instead of new addition Calvin Ridley, we opt for the cheaper Christian Kirk ($5,600) — the Jaguars’ top fantasy WR last season.
That leaves us enough coin to add a stud. Since we already have Mostert, we pivot from Tyreek Hill to Ja’Marr Chase ($8,200). And we cap our roster with Keenan Allen ($7,300) for more exposure to what could be a Fins-Bolts track meet.
Now that’s a first kiss for the fantasy season that feels exciting.
Big weeks
Jordan Love QB, Packers, at Bears (FanDuel $6,400/DraftKings $5,000)
The Packers have a top-tier offensive line, and the Bears’ defense was a sieve last we saw it. Not for seasonal use, but as a contrarian DFS play, he has some cheap upside.
Brian Robinson Jr. RB, Commanders, vs. Cardinals (FD $6,400/DK $5,100)
He averaged nearly 20 carries per game over the final seven games last season. Cards were in the bottom five against opposing RBs. Washington will likely be playing from ahead, so more clock-killing ground game.
Courtland Sutton WR, Broncos, vs. Raiders (FD $5,900/DK $5,200)
Jerry Jeudy has been dealing with a hamstring issue. Looking past a poor matchup, we like the volume Sutton is likely to see.
Juwan Johnson TE, Saints, vs. Titans (FD $5,100/DK $3,900)
Titans were among the worst defending fantasy TEs last season. New QB Derek Carr could opt for more checkdowns in a new offense. Not a bad option if you need a Darren Waller sub.
Small weaks
Javonte Williams RB, Broncos, vs. Raiders (FD $6,500/DK $5,700)
Still love him season-long, but coming off a major knee injury, so don’t be surprised if Samaje Perine produces more for fantasy early in the season.
Breece Hall RB, Jets, vs. Bills (N/A)
See above, replace “Samaje Perine” with “Dalvin Cook.”
J.K. Dobbins RB, Ravens, vs. Texans (FD $6,500/DK $6,600)
Dobbins is like a political promise that is constantly two weeks from delivery. He is always hurt, or recently back from injury, or moments from a new injury. Until he can show the ability to stay on the field, and consistent production when on it, keep him stashed on your bench.
D’Andre Swift RB, Eagles, at Patriots (FD $6,300/DK $5,400)
Wouldn’t it be great if someone constantly handed the ball to Swift? That team won’t be the Eagles, particularly early on, when Kenneth Gainwell is still in mix and Rashaad Penny isn’t hurt yet.
Insanity’s Daily Duel
Drew Loftis and Jarad Wilk submit dueling rosters into a DFS contest:
Site: DraftKings
Slate: Sun. main (13 games)
Type: $5 tourney
Top prize: $1M
Pot: $5M
Drew’s Crew
QB — Trevor Lawrence (Jac, at Ind) $6,500
RB — Deon Jackson (Ind, vs. Jac) $4,100
RB — Jamaal Williams (NO, vs. Ten) $5,100
WR — Ja’Marr Chase (Cin, at Cle) $8,200
WR — Keenan Allen (LAC, vs. Mia) $7,300
WR — Christian Kirk (Jac, at Ind) $5,600
TE — Tyler Higbee (LAR, at Sea) $4,800
Flex — Raheem Mostert (Mia, at LAC) $5,400
DST — Commanders (Was, vs. Ari) $2,800
Wilk’s Warriors
QB — Justin Herbert (LAC, vs. Mia) $6,900
RB — Brian Robinson Jr. (Was, vs. Ari) $5,100
RB — Deon Jackson (Ind, vs. Jac) $4,100
WR — Keenan Allen (LAC, vs. Mia) $7,300
WR — Zay Flowers (Bal, vs. Hou) $4,000
WR — Calvin Ridley (Jac, at Ind) $6,500
TE — Dalton Schultz (Hou, at Bal) $4,600
Flex — Justin Jefferson (Min, vs. TB) $8,800
DST — Raiders (LV, at Den) $2,300
2023 season: Risked $5
2022 season loses: Jarad -$36, Drew -$198.55
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