Japan October inflation rate falls, BOJ rate hike still on table

Japan’s headline inflation rate slipped to 2.3% in October, its lowest level since January and down from the 2.5% seen in September.

The core inflation rate, which excludes fresh food prices, came in at 2.3%, down from September’s 2.4%. The figure however, was slightly higher than the 2.2% expected among economists polled by Reuters.

Japan’s central bank has long stated that its goal is a “virtuous cycle between wages and prices.” A weak inflation reading could therefore mean that the bank would still need to maintain an easy monetary policy stance.

A separate inflation reading, known as the “core-core” inflation rate — which strips out prices of both fresh food and energy — rose to 2.3%, above September’s figure of 2.1%. This metric is also tracked by the Bank of Japan. 

According to LSEG data, 55% of economists polled by Reuters as of Nov. 22 expect the Bank of Japan to hike rates by 25 basis points at its December meeting, which would bring the benchmark policy rate to 0.5%.

On Nov. 18, BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda said the economy is heading toward sustained wage-driven inflation, and warned against keeping borrowing costs too low, Reuters reported.

The BOJ also said in its latest summary of opinions that if prices and Japan’s economy develop as it expects, the policy rate could reach 1% by the second half of its 2025 fiscal year at the earliest.

Speaking to CNBC after the CPI was released, Hirofumi Suzuki, chief FX strategist at Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation said that although inflation has “calmed down,” the data is in line with the BOJ’s forecast and supports a rate hike.

Lorraine Tan, Morningstar’s director of equity research for Asia, said the firm is also expecting the BOJ to continue with a “gradual escalation” of interest rates in Japan, adding that the bank would want to use monetary policy to keep the yen on a “steady keel.”

Japan’s currency had weakened against the greenback in November, hitting a four month intraday high of 156.74 on Nov. 15. However, it has since rallied slightly, trading at 154.28 on Friday.