This is the NFL, and sometimes you have to ignore the blatantly obvious narratives — or at least choose not to invest in them.
All we’ve heard this week is how badly the Ravens are going to beat up on the Jets as 13.5-point favorites at home.
Here’s the common water cooler talk: The Jets are so bereft they’ve benched Justin Fields in favor of Tyrod Taylor, who will be without Garrett Wilson and backed by a defense that can’t buy a turnover.
The Ravens, who were victim to a difficult schedule to start the season and were without the services of Lamar Jackson for a period, have now won four in a row and are poised to cut through the final stretch like paper.
Public betting reports reflect that 67 percent of bettors are backing the Ravens on the spread.
Anyone that has placed faith in this Jets product this season is inured by their dysfunctions at this point. I’ve been the last guy to endorse them, and it’s not to say that I am here.
Similar to last week’s 12.5 points set between the Jets and Patriots, laying this many points is too ambitious. With Taylor offering a change to the offense, the Jets can only go up from what they’ve shown with Fields.
On the other hand, this is the Jets, who while of course have little to stand on as an outright threat, are also a toss up ATS, sporting a 5-5 record overall and 2-2 as road ‘dogs.
In other words, there are other ways to fade Gang Green in this spot for a decent price.
That points me to the spotlight on Taylor, who is -128 to throw an interception at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Taylor performed valiantly in his one start on Sept. 21 where the Jets fell to the Buccaneers 29-27, but was still picked off once, his first of three in three total appearances. He owns a 3-3 TD-INT ratio.
The Ravens could make Taylor’s fresh promotion uncomfortable; they are a blitz-heavy team that has allowed a 63 percent completion rate, the ninth-lowest in the NFL.
Betting on the NFL?
Taylor is generally viewed as a caretaker who can avoid disaster, though, if he’s without first reads and forced into late throws — which all signs point to happening in this spot — that can quickly erode.
THE PLAY: Tyrod Taylor to Throw an Interception (-128, FanDuel)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Sean Treppedi handicaps the NFL, NHL, MLB and college football for the New York Post. He primarily focuses on picks that reflect market value while tracking trends to mitigate risk.
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